The State Budget & Meg’s Housekeeper
Don’t think that because the Big 5 announced agreement on the budget that it is a done deal. I ran into a Democratic Assemblyman at a book festival over the weekend as I was plugging my mystery novel, Lincoln’s Hand, and he told me he had just been briefed on the budget. He said it was ugly for both sides and he wasn’t sure he could vote for it.
A Wall Street Journal article reports similar remarks from other legislators. This budget drama is not over.
And, neither is the drama over Meg Whitman’s housekeeper, Nicandra Diaz Santillan. The two dramas could be linked in looking at the "big picture" of California’s problems.
Business Disagreement over Proposition 23
Proposition 23 to suspend the greenhouse gases law until unemployment drops dramatically has split the business community. Early this week, the California Manufacturer and Technology Association president, Jack Stewart, argued on this site that Proposition 23 must pass to preserve jobs and battle the high costs associated with the law. Other business groups including the California Small Business Association and the California chapter of the National Federation of Independent Business join him in this concern.
On Wednesday in Burbank, a press conference, which included business representatives, delivered the message that Proposition 23 must be defeated to create jobs.
Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger was supposed to anchor the media conference but took a pass to continue budget negotiations. Greg Lippe, former board chair of the Valley Industry and Commerce Association (VICA), a business association powerhouse in the San Fernando Valley, led the event noting that "420 individual businesses, chambers of commerce and business associations" opposed Proposition 23 because they felt the measure would kill economic development and jobs.
Déjà Vu: A Late Hit in a Gubernatorial Race
A late campaign hit with Gloria Allred as part of it … I’ve lived through this before during the Schwarzenegger 2003 gubernatorial campaign. As in that instance, it will take a few days to play out and see what is behind the revelation. But like the 2003 media circus over Schwarzenegger’s interaction with some women during his movie career, the late hit raises many questions.
The one thing that is unclear in housekeeper Nicandra Diaz-Santillan’s story is her statement that she revealed to Meg Whitman and her husband in 2009 that she was not here legally while at the same time Diaz-Santillan’s lawyer, Allred, charges that Whitman and her husband knew all along of her status. That doesn’t compute.
If Whitman and the hiring agency checked all Diaz-Santillan’s papers and they appeared in order there was nothing else Whitman need do.
Good Reasons for Capital Gains Tax Cuts and Other Thoughts on the Debate
Jerry Brown pounded Meg Whitman on her capital gains tax cut plan in their first debate last night. Whitman didn’t defend or explain her reasons for the tax, as she should. There are good reasons to cut the capital gains tax.
The tax cuts are not simply a giveaway to the rich, as Brown contended. The capital gains tax cuts are part of her targeted tax plan to bring back jobs. Capital gains tax cuts can quickly bring money into the treasury by freeing up money that taxpayers are holding and are more likely to spend because of the cuts. Capital gains tax cuts provide the revenue necessary for entrepreneurs to succeed. Small businesses and entrepreneurs need resources to create jobs and spark the California economy, which these cuts can provide. Whitman has good reasons for supporting the capital gains tax cut and she should have explained her reasons to the voters.
Whitman offered more solutions for the state’s problems. She put Brown on the defensive about his close ties to public employee unions.
Turnout is the Key in Close Governor’s Race
Looking at the polls on the governor’s race, the candidate that can motivate their voters to go to the polls will determine the next governor of California. There is little enthusiasm for the election, which will likely limit voter participation and, in turn, determine the outcome.
The USC/Los Angeles Times poll came out over the weekend and like other recent surveys, it indicates the race is close, pretty much within the margin of error.
Jerry Brown had a five point lead in this poll, but the Whitman campaign said the poll skewered too hard to the left, noting that 55% of the self-identified respondents labeled themselves leaning the Democratic way to 35% offering up a Republican label. The 20-point spread is larger than is expected election day.
Funding the Yes on 27 Campaign. Or is that the Intention?
The campaign to bring congress under the independent redistricting commission (Yes on Prop 20), and at the same time defeat the effort to do away with the redistricting commission all together (No on Prop 27), has taken a look at the efforts of Congressman Howard Berman to get legislators to fund Prop 27 and has suggested the money raised to pass 27 will eventually end up being used to defeat Prop 20.
Here’s the deal: Berman is encouraging legislators to donate to a campaign to pass Proposition 27, which will get rid of the independent redistricting commission the people set up by passing Proposition 11 a couple of years ago. The commission takes over the power once jealously guarded by legislators to draw legislative districts. Legislators would prefer to create their own safe legislative districts than see independent commissioners drawing the lines.
However, Proposition 11 did not apply to redistricting congressional districts. Proposition 20 was put on the ballot so that congressional redistricting would become part of the new commission’s portfolio.
Waiting for the Debate
Voters are waiting … waiting for something to break open this governor’s race. The Field Poll shows the governor’s race is dead even. Since the two gubernatorial candidates have been within the margin of error throughout the summer, today’s Field Poll doesn’t show much change.
The Brown campaign might say that since they are up on the air now they are turning things around, but in reality, the race has been flat and I suspect it will stay that way until the next turning point being the first debate on Tuesday at UC Davis.
The even poll puts more pressure on the candidates to perform well during the debate and the closeness of the race may bring more attention and interest from the voters than the voters seemed to have shown in this race so far.
Proposition 25, Taxes and the Brooklyn Bridge
The Yes on Prop 25 campaign’s new TV commercial emphasizes the measure does not raise taxes and punishes legislators if the budget is late.
The No on 25 side (of which I am a part) points out the legislators can avoid the punishment of no pay for failure to produce an on-time budget if the majority simply passes a sham budget, whether the governor signs it or not.
But, it is the tax issue that should receive the focus of voters. While there is a dispute whether taxes can be raised directly through the mechanism of Prop 25, there is no question revenue can be raised to cover the spending in a majority vote budget through increases in majority vote fees, which in many cases are disguised taxes.
Local Government Scandals, High Salaries, Pensions and Prop 22
Timing is everything the old saying goes and that wisdom may apply directly to Proposition 22 on the November ballot. The goal of the ballot measure’s supporters is to set up a wall between local government funds and a voracious state government. The campaign for passing Prop 22, lead by the League of California Cities, describes the problem as state raids and borrowing of local funds jeopardizes public safety, transit and other vital local services.
But, headlines dealing with local governments over the last few months have been about excessive pay for local officials, free tickets to big-time events, and growing pension and health obligations that put a squeeze on funding local services.
Voters might ask if a shortfall in local budgets is due to the state reaching into local government treasuries or if the problem is self-inflicted by city officials voting for over-generous pay and pension plans.
LA Stimulates Few Jobs
How’s that stimulus package working out for Los Angeles? Not too well when you look at the audit report issued by LA City Controller Wendy Gruel yesterday.
The city controller’s report revealed that $111 million dollars in federal stimulus money sent to Public Works and Transportation departments has resulted in a total of 55 jobs created or retained. Well, not 55 exactly, since the audit tests work hours, that’s 54.46 jobs created or retained.
And, while it is good for the individual workers that their jobs were retained, that means many fewer than 55 jobs were created for the $111 million. With two million Californians out of work, many in the most populous city in the state, we need to create jobs. What is going on here?