Death of the California Republican Party: Murder or Suicide?

Tony Quinn's picture
Political Commentator and Former Legislative Staffer

The California Republican Party is dead. Call the undertaker, haul away the corpse.

But was it murder, or was it suicide? Mostly a combination, a result both of demographic changes and the stupidity of Republican leaders.

The modern GOP began with the election of Ronald Reagan as governor in1966. He built a coalition of fiscally conservative suburban voters and “Reagan Democrats,” alienated from their historic party. Republicans carried California for six straight presidential elections using that formula (1968, 1972, 1976, 1980, 1984 and 1988)

But with the end of the Cold War, defense related jobs disappeared, and were replaced by the high technology information age. The new high tech voters were turned off by a less tolerant GOP conservatism, and over the past 20 years Republicans have suffered a long decline in the suburbs. The 2008 election marked the end of the GOP with most high wealth suburban voters.

Information age techies make their money on their brains, not their brawn. But the GOP appeal has been to downscale voters, not upscale. Where is the Reagan argument that what California should be about is promoting economic growth, using our tax system to reward entrepreneurial enterprise, building our infrastructure – arguments that would appeal to high tech voters? Nowhere to be found. Republicans just talk about their opposition to tax increases, a negative message that lacks any vision for a better California. And how do information age voters respond; Republicans have been trashed in practically every white collar suburb in California, by the very voting blocks that were once the backbone of Reaganism.

The last Republican Assembly seat in the San Francisco Bay Area fell to the Democrats, thus shutting the door on Republicans in Silicon Valley and its environs. Even more dramatic was the collapse in the southern California suburbs, where GOP legislative candidates barely won in district after district that were safely Republican as recently as four year ago.

The only marginal political territory left in Los Angeles County is now, get this, the Antelope Valley. A completely unknown Democrat from Palmdale just got 48 percent in an Assembly district that had been safe for three decades. Over the past 20 years, Republicans have lost once safe districts in Burbank, Glendale, Pasadena, Long Beach, Torrance, Downey and Ontario. There is no reason to believe the Antelope Valley will not be next; Sen. George Runner is probably the last GOP official to represent that area.

Republicans have spent years in denial while suburb after suburb has gone Democratic, hallucinating that “proud pro-life conservatives” can still win in California. Voters just turned down parental consent for abortion for the third time; how many times do Republicans need to be told this is a pro-choice state. Their social issue stands have destroyed the GOP in California’s suburbs. Don’t believe me? Look at a map.

But it is their xenophobic attitude toward Latinos, that dates all the way back to Gov. Pete Wilson and Proposition 187, that has done the most to sink the GOP. Minority owned small businesses are the fastest growing. Asians and Latinos are moving into the suburbs. Virtually every district Republicans have lost over the past 20 years shows Latino suburban and middle class growth.

Have Republicans learned anything from this? Obviously not; over the past two years they metastasized the Proposition 187 cancer into Latino bashing over “amnesty” to illegal workers, and they threw away the one positive demographic of the Bush years, his appeal to Latino voters. Reagan entrepreneurism became know nothing nativism. The price was the GOP’s dismal showing, not only in California but throughout the west in 2008.

After the McCain-Palin disaster in November, Lexington, The Economist’s American columnist, called the GOP a “party of rednecks.” “The Republican Party’s current ‘redneck’ strategy will leave it appealing to a shrinking and backward looking part of the electorate.” That is surely the case in California; the once powerful Reagan coalition has been reduced to downscale and elderly white voters. Republicans can still win in small towns and retirement areas where voters have fled to escape the cultural changes that are occurring in California, but that is about it.

At 31.3 percent of registered voters, California Republicans are at the lowest point in the history of the state. And they will go lower, as elderly white voters pass on. Sometime in the next decade, decline to state registrants will pass Republicans.

Maybe the GOP will come to its senses, but it is very unlikely. Republicans hold not a single district other than those gerrymandered for them in the 2001 redistricting, and the gerrymander will disappear in 2011, thanks to Proposition 11. Perhaps return to an open primary would allow Republicans to nominate candidates who can still win outside gerrymandered districts. But count on the myopic state GOP leadership to fight to keep the primary closed so they can control a dying party of geriatric voters.

So last rites are in order for the California GOP. May God have mercy on its soul, for the state’s voters have had none.

Republican Voters Killed the Party

Every time thinking Republicans voted for bigoted candidates running campaigns based on anger and hate, it was a deal with the devil that eventually resulted in idiots running the party, the public discussion, and often the government - very, very badly. Over the years the Democrats moved toward the center and they now "own" many of the issues that used to form the central core of the fiscal GOP. The party now only stands for religious extremism, government intrusion into private lives, and racism. Every Republican voter is to blame.

Reagan was to blame for the collapse

Reagan encourage the importation of millions of poor Hispanics who are automatic Democratic voters. If you believe in smaller government, lower taxes, and more freedom, you cannot support open border policies that important millions of future Democratic voters. If you really want to know what killed the Republicans in California, look at the 1980 Census numbers versus 2005. there are fewer whites in California today that there were two decades ago. How are Republcians suppose to exist when their natural base is shrinking and the non-whites want nothing to do with a small government party.

Not dead, just lost

I think that everyone that counted the Republican party dead will be amazed how quick it will come back to life when we get the right leadership in place. Getting the right message and returning from our lost ways of recent will quickly breath life into those of us that are gasping for that breath of fresh air. Who is going to come out of the woodwork? and don't tell me "Sarah".

death of the GOP

Tony is perfectly correct (for once). I'd add only that any social conservatism exhibited by ethnic minority voters in the Prop 8 election was obliterated by the GOP's nativism that allows Democrats to rack up huge majorities there. Ironically, gay voters had been relatively quiescent outside of particular localities until Prop 8 - now the GOP has succeeded in mobilizing them as well. But it's time to recognize that the remaining Republicans have no interest in governing (obtaining a majority). They are content to take advantage of the Constitutional requirements that give them the opportunity to obstruct the majority.

Agree and Disagree

I do agree that California Republicans should look to change many of the current policies that they are engaged in, especially in the economic front. And yes, California is more liberal than most of the other states in the country. However, you forgot to mention that there were two main social issue ballots this November, prop.4, which you mentioned, and prop. 8, which you forgot to mention. Also, you talk about Hispanic and minority votes. As a minority myself, I know for a fact that most of these groups are very socially conservative. Prop.8 passed for that reason many of the Hispanics and Blacks voted “yes” on 8. I do not think it is time to attack the social conservatives in the party, but it definitely is the time to look at some changes that can be deployed within our party. You cannot just pin the loss of this election to the social conservatives. I worked in campaigns of these "Southern California Suburbs". The most of the volunteers that actually spent a lot of their time to help out with the campaigns were from local churches and religious organizations. Whether you like it or not, social conservatives are part of the party and I am sure that it is easier to win the hearts of minorities than have the social conservatives move toward the center. Lastly, we have to stand on strong principles. This is what sets us apart from the Democrats. Why did McCain lose? I think he lost because he was trying too hard to reach across to the other side of the aisle.

Cal Republican Party

Republicans can't out government the democrats.....and they shouldn't try. We need a train wreck...we almost had one with Grey Davis but the Republicans saved the State with Arnold. We can't seem to do anything right!!

You are 100% Correct about the Republican Party

In reading this column I realize you are 100% correct about the Republican Party. While I am for what the Republican Party has advocated for years, I also am a realist and realize we can't win elections by the stands we have taken in the past several years. I especially feel we need to attract the minorities which will become the majorities in a few years.

Republicans Lose in Califiornia

The old canard about Proposition 187 rises again in a ridiculous charge that it damaged the Republican Party. In fact, Propposition 187, which denied benefits to illegal aliens, is exactly what the public wants, and Bush and McCain's advocacy of taxpayer benefits for lawbreakers based on their ethnicity severely damaged the Party. The Republican Party has turned into an elitist club of those who completely ignore their base and spent this country into bankruptcy at the expense of the rank-and-file taxpayer. Republicans lost all their principles and their advocacy. Massive unchecked illegal immigration and their attendant burden on healthcare, education and prisions, have bankrupted California, even as they cling to Democrats who promise unstoppable spigots of money. Attempted bribery by Republican elites to support rights for illegal aliens backfired on them, and they sink under Democratic rule. Good riddance.

Is there a doctor in the house? How about business leaders?

Tony, this is powerful and describes a sad state of affairs, not only for Republicans, but perhaps for California's economy and job market (to the extent the R's provide some protection for the business environment). Who can save the Republican party from itself? Who should? Arguably, the business community should come together and teach the state's Republicans how to redefine themselves, develop a marketing strategy that works, and make themselves relevant again in a changing world. It's in the best interest of businesses who would like to continue providing jobs here to talk some sense into this party. Businesses, small and large, know how to change and evolve (both internally and externally) as the needs and demographics of their customers and employees change. Many companies know how to do this without losing their core values. It's not easy, but it can be done. Are business organizations standing by and watching the party die, or are we sitting them down and telling them to get their house in order? The legislators can't figure this out on their own. With term limits, they don't have the knowledge or experience. But members of organizations like the Chamber and the Business Roundtable could and should help them, whether or not the party thinks it needs the help.

Man, Are Your Ever Right!

You said: "Voters just turned down parental consent for abortion for the third time; how many times do Republicans need to be told this is a pro-choice state. Their social issue stands have destroyed the GOP in California’s suburbs. Don’t believe me? Look at a map." How about a more centrist, less right-wing on the social issues (or just shut up on the social issues) and old has-been crusades, all new 21st Century GOP in California and the US already? I think the last campaign turned off more people than it turned on and the results say so. We have so, so many problems right now - how about addressing real problems and leaving the morality-arguments and morality-legislating for the religious groups, where it belongs? The GOP should be meeting the Obama Administration step by step with rational, coherent, centrist ideas to solve problems which, if ignored much longer, will surely do us in - not replaying old 80's pitches which are irrelevant today. Bravo for the courage to write this excellent piece.



Please note, statements and opinions expressed on the Fox&Hounds Blog are solely those of their respective authors and may not represent the views of Fox&Hounds Daily or its employees thereof. Fox&Hounds Daily is not responsible for the accuracy of any of the information supplied by the site's bloggers.