Last week I wrote on the odds of the Democratic Party being able to achieve a veto-proof "supermajority" in the Senate or Assembly come November.
This requires the Democrats to pick up two new seats in the Senate and six new seats in the Assembly, while holding on to the seats they currently hold.
I surmised that because no Democrat filed to run against Republican Senator Abel Maldonado in SD15, which the CA Target Book identified as one of only two GOP-held senate seats up this year that are competitive, along with Senate President Pro Tem Don Perata throwing in the towel in the Jeff Denham recall election, that a pickup of two seats was not likely.
But the situation in SD15 did not sit well with local Democratic activists, particularly those on the San Luis Obispo County Democratic Central Committee. They are now backing a write-in campaign for Dennis Morris, described in Calitics, a popular liberal web site, as "a non-politician, a former legal scholar who retired to grow grapes on his vineyard."
If at least 3,700 Democratic voters write-in Morris’ name on the June 3rd primary ballot, his name will appear on the November ballot as the Democratic nominee, which could certainly put this district back in play come November.
The other big story that could impact the November legislative elections is the state Supreme Court’s 4-3 ruling that legalizes same sex marriage.
An initiative is expected to soon qualify for the November ballot that, if passed by a majority of voters, would overturn that ruling.
A recent poll conducted by SurveyUSA, a reputable national polling firm that has contracts with several local TV stations in California, found that if the election was held today that the proposition would pass 52%-36%, with 12% undecided.
As could be expected, 77% of registered Republicans and 79% of self identified conservatives support the initiative. But those who support the Court’s opinion and will be organizing to defeat the initiative will not be able to depend on the traditional Democratic coalition that makes this state so Democratic.
Two key voter groups within the Democratic coalition, Blacks and Latinos, also heavily support the initiative to overturn the Court’s ruling. The Survey/USA show Blacks with 67% support and Latinos with 57% support.
Since all three presidential candidates have the same position on gay marriage – they oppose it – I don’t expect it to be a major factor in the presidential race here in California.
Now, back to the state legislative races.
Three of the assembly districts that Democrats must win in November for any chance of achieving their super majority have a significant number of Latino voters. The districts, with their percent of Latino voters are: AD26 (R-Aghazarian) 22%; AD30 (D-Parra) 43% and AD80 (R-Garcia) 39%.
Republican, of course, will be hoping that this becomes an issue that could influence the Latino vote for Assembly.
But as one who at one time managed Republican campaigns, a note of caution.
These same Latino voters, by significant margins, are also anti-abortion. But that single issue has never dissuaded Latino voters from voting Democratic and continuing to elect Democratic legislators who support abortion rights.