Billionaires and the No Campaign
The intriguing question about the May special election is whether either of the billionaire Republican gubernatorial candidates will spend money to defeat the measures they both publically opposed. Steve Poizner and Meg Whitman are weighing the politics of such a move, and looking ahead to January 2011 to determine whether they would be better off starting out their gubernatorial term with the current budget fix in place or to deal with the consequences of the measures defeat, whatever they may be.
The focus is mostly on Poizner because he has a history of spending heavily in initiative campaigns. He helped fund the unsuccessful redistricting campaign during the 2005 special election and, most notably, stepped up with big dollars to knock out the term limit change measure promoted by then Speaker Fabian Nunez and Senate President Pro Tem Don Perata that would have allowed them to remain in their leadership positions beyond the scheduled end of their terms.
A $20 Million Campaign
After doing some reporting, that’s my conservative estimate of what the Yes side of the six ballot measures will have to spend before the May 19 special election.
Ordinarily $20 million is enough to run a good campaign. But this is not an ordinary campaign. The first five of the six measures have less than 50 percent support in public polls, and there’s no simple, direct way to sell any of those measures.
Propositions 1A and 1C present particularly formidable challenges, because supporters are contending with considerable public misinformation about both measures. (A significant part of the public thinks that the lottery provides a big chunk of education spending; in point of fact, only 2 percent of funds for schools come from the lottery). Given the high likelihood of defeat, it’s remarkable that the yes side has put together $20 million. It may end up being money wasted.
California Budget Challenge 2009
It took California’s legislature three long months of intense negotiations to resolve this year’s budget standoff. Now Californians can try their hand at solving the Golden State’s budget woes in just 15 minutes with the “California Budget Challenge.”
The California Budget Challenge is an easy-to-use nonpartisan online tool that simulates some of the tough choices our legislators face. The flash-based program leads users through choices on a variety of issues that affect the state’s finances, ranging from education to criminal justice. Users get to decide whether or not to raise income taxes, restructure Proposition 13, or expand health care coverage, among other choices. With each choice, a “budget meter” provides a running tally that shows the state’s budget gap growing or shrinking.
With the latest update, users will also get the opportunity to better understand May’s ballot measures. With each decision, users are presented with the option to learn more about the issues at hand and see whether they are closing or widening the state’s deficit. The Budget Challenge is one way that voters can educate themselves about the bigger picture of government in the Golden State.
Job Losses Hit Quarter Century High; An Unoriginal Idea
Last week ended with the new March job loss numbers; national unemployment is now at 8.5% after another 663,000 jobs were lost, leaving 5.1 million Americans now out of work, officially counted, since the Recession began almost a year and a half ago. We need to add, not lose, hundreds of thousands of jobs per month, just to stay even with population growth and normal turnovers. Bleak is the word as some are calling for 10% national unemployment by this year’s end.
That’s 5.1 million Americans who did not go to the Mall last weekend to buy things after cashing their paychecks, who probably stayed home and ate at home and are now wondering how they will continue paying their mortgages, their rent and their other bills. The effects continue to ripple through the worlds of retail, travel, restaurants, and all the other places in our tightly interlocked economy which are starving for dollars.