We started the sweepstakes in Congressional District 10 when news was leaked of Congresswoman Ellen Tauscher’s prospective nomination by President Obama as the Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security on March 18th.
So today, May 6, 2009, the real games begin with the President’s announcement of Tauscher’s formal nomination.
Democrat, Lt. Gov. John Garamendi released a poll on Tuesday showing his standing as strongest among the top Democrat contenders at 24%. Senator Mark DeSaulnier had 13% and Assemblywoman Joan Buchanan got 10%. Garamendi’s name ID is not surprising at 80%, given that he has run for every office in the state of California. DeSaulnier’s name ID trails at 39% to Buchanan’s 45%.
DeSaulnier’s latest race for Senate District 7 was easy in a district which overwhelmingly favors Democrats. DeSaulnier got 66.3% and his opponent Christian Amsberry garnered 33.4% of the vote, running just a little head of GOP registration – a minor miracle in modern times.
Assemblywoman Joan Buchanan’s name ID being just 6% over DeSaulnier’s might concern her camp since she ran in the most competitive Assembly race in Northern California against popular Mayor of San Ramon Abram Wilson. Wilson beat me in the primary and will run again in the 15th AD in 2010. He’s the hands down favorite now to re-take the seat, given Buchanan’s sudden decision to seek the Congressional seat. If she wins, the vacancy occurs immediately in Assembly District 15.
On the GOP side of CD-10, Contra Costa Sheriff Warren Rupf placed second in the Garamendi campaign’s survey at 17% – beating both DeSaulnier and Buchanan. This fact has certainly turned some heads given the Sheriff is taking more than a glance at the seat – however the odds still overwhelmingly favor the Democrats.
Governor Schwarzenegger has 14 days to call for a special election to replace Ellen Tauscher after she is confirmed by the U.S. Senate (likely around Memorial Day) and resigns her congressional post. Then within 120 days, a “primary” takes place. This is not a traditional primary. All candidates are on the same ballot in a run-off. If no candidate garners more than 50% of the vote, the top vote-getters from each party will face off in a second special election ballot.
That means that Garamendi could face his closest GOP polling competitor – Sheriff Rupf if he runs – or a lesser known GOP challenger. The odds are slim for Republicans since CD-10 – a victim of Democrat reapportionment – has a staggering 19% voter registration advantage for Democrats in this seat once held by conservative Republican Bill Baker.
Entering the race today is Republican David Harmer of San Ramon – a devout Mormon whose father former California Senate Leader and Lt. Gov. John Harmer – wrote the book “Reagan Man of Principle” where a young David is featured taking jelly beans from then-Governor Reagan in the photo section.
Reaganites will certainly appreciate Harmer’s family legacy. His immediate family is picture-perfect, charming and among the more delightful I’ve had the chance to meet. Harmer has a pedigree as an attorney who understands securities and budget issues and once came within one point of winning a Congressional seat in the 1990’s in Utah. Harmer has hired Tim Clark (formerly of Johnson Clark), which means that he will have a well run, professional campaign if he can raise the funds needed to compete as a Republican.
Republican environmental activist Buddy Burke is still taking a look on the GOP side as well as Fairfield councilwoman Catherine Moy and Christopher Bunch.
The GOP wild card continues to be Sheriff Rupf whose mere entry to the race would give him the edge as the top GOP vote getter. Rupf is a larger than life figure at some 6’7” – a smart, well respected law enforcer with the trust of county, Bay Area, and statewide leaders – a pragmatic law enforcer who does what’s right for the people. He’ll make the call later this month on whether this is his race.
Place your bets now – and let the games begin!