When a newspaper asked the 2010 candidates for governor how they would handle California’s budget mess, Attorney General Jerry Brown begged off, saying through a spokesman that he wasn’t an official candidate for the state’s top office.
The once and possibly future governor should try telling that – with a straight face – to the 100-plus donors who already have given him more than the $6,500 maximum for the June primary for attorney general, the campaign he’s still “officially” planning.
Although the official campaign finance figures for the first half of the year aren’t due until Monday, it’s clear that Brown is raising serious money for his all-but-guaranteed governor’s campaign despite being bound – for now — by the much lower contribution limits of a down-ballot race.
That’s terrible news for San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom, the only announced Democratic candidate for governor. If Brown is smoking Newsom in fund-raising now, how much worse will it get when the attorney general actually announces he’ll seek a third term as California’s governor?
Brown reported earlier this month that he had raised $7.3 million as of June 30, compared to $1.6 million for Newsom in the first six months of the year. When the campaign reports are made public, they’re also likely to show that Newsom has been burning through his campaign cash in an effort to build his name ID in the state, while Brown has barely had to dig into his war chest.
A look at Brown’s donors shows that Newsom’s financial situation is likely to become even grimmer.
As of Wednesday, the secretary of state’s records showed that 178 people already have given Brown the maximum $6,500 he can accept for June’s attorney general primary. But another 114 donors have given him more than the $6,500 limit, with 49 of them giving him exactly twice that.
That’s possible because down-ballot candidates can accept $6,500 for the primary and another $6,500 for the general election. People can contribute all $13,000 at once, but anything over $6,500 can’t be used until the November campaign.
Unless, of course, Brown decides to get in the governor’s race, which has a contribution limit of $25,900 for the primary and $25,900 again for the general. Suddenly all that AG money would become instantly available for the June primary.
Which is the reason for the maximum donations from unions like the operating engineers, the electrical workers and the California Nurses Association and from individuals like DreamWorks studio co-founders Jeffrey Katzenberg and Steven Spielberg and Oracle CEO Larry Ellison.
These people know their money is going to go for the governor’s race, not a re-election campaign. And don’t be surprised if many of those $13,000 contributions get bumped up to the $25,900 max as soon as Brown makes it official.
That dreary financial news is probably what cost Eric Jaye, Newsom’s long-time political strategist, his job with the campaign this week.
Officially, Jaye left because of a “fundamental difference in how to run the campaign.” But it’s no secret Jaye wanted to work the Internet and new media like Facebook and Twitter to build up a buzz about Newsom as “the next big thing” among new and occasional voters and follow the Obama model of raising big bucks through lots and lots of small contributions.
Problem is, that takes time and Newsom might not have much. A March Field Poll showed Brown with both a solid lead and a more favorable image than Newsom and polls since then have suggested that gap is growing. Combine that with Brown’s very familiar political name and a bunch of cash and there’s the possibility that Newsom could be written off by many voters.
Gary South, the winner in the Newsom campaign power struggle, will try to keep that from happening. As he showed in guiding Gray Davis to victory in 1998 and 2002, he knows the state, he knows the voters and he knows how to raise money.
South also has a well-deserved reputation for playing hardball politics, so look for him to quickly start roughing Brown up for all the foibles, glitches and troubles of his long political career.
John Wildermuth is a longtime writer on California politics.