The latest state unemployment numbers were released last Friday, July 17. The unemployment rate stayed at 11.6%, consistent with the revised 11.6% rate for May. However, as usual, the key indicators of California’s employment situation were elsewhere: in the nonfarm payroll numbers, the sector breakdowns, and the breakdowns by counties. These all showed a state economy that is dead-in-the-water relative to hiring.
Here are the 5 key points:
1. Hiring in California has not turned around, and net job losses continue to mount: Between November 2008 and February 2009, the state saw widespread job shedding. In February 2009, alone, the state lost 119,000 jobs. In March, the net job loss was 62,100, suggesting that we may have begun to turn the corner. The last three months, though, job losses have increased, rather than decreased, and June showed a net loss of 66,500 jobs.
2. The job losses are across virtually all sectors: The job losses are not concentrated in a few sectors. They are now across all 11 sectors. Even the sector of Educational and Health Services, which has been the one reliable job gainer for the past ten years, showed a minor net job loss over the month (900 jobs lost). Every other sector, including Government, lost jobs.
3. Construction employment continues to be in free-fall: Construction employment stood at over 937,000 jobs in December 2006. In less than 30 months, construction has fallen by 295,000 jobs, down to 642,000 jobs in June 2009. California has lost more construction jobs in this period than exist in nearly all states.
4. No region of the state is spared: Some regions of the state are doing better than others, but no region has been spared. Marin County has the lowest rate at 8% (Marin and San Mateo have had the lowest rates for many years), but the more populous counties in the Bay Area have been hit hard, including Santa Clara at 11.8% and Alameda at 11.4%.
5. These job numbers do not capture other negative employment indicators, among the self-employed and among persons who may be employed but not on fixed salaries: These job numbers are bad enough in themselves. But they also fail to show the impacts of the economic downturn amount the self-employed (around 9.8% of California workers) and among persons who are employed but not on fixed salaries. Both groups do not appear as unemployed, but have seen their workloads and incomes drop dramatically.
One other point, re: state budget. The state budget standoff is contributing to the employment malaise. While the budget is unresolved, projects remain on hold and employers who might hire instead remain inactive.