With each passing week, the political headlines make it clear that the luster is falling off the Democrat brand quickly. Whether its Obama’s falling polls, falling numbers for his health care initiative or growing disenchantment with the Pelosi/Reid leadership, the trend is unmistakable. To make matters worse for Democrats, that trend is likely to continue in the year to come.
The so-called stimulus package will not positively affect the economy. The reason is simple: the economy is still suffering from the 2nd largest tax burden in American history and the highest ever regulatory burden. Combined with a huge debt burden, staggering deficits and the threat of new taxes, it is no wonder that talk of a double dip recession has started to make the rounds among economists. All of that spells more than potential mid-term election trouble for the Democrats – something Congressional watcher Charlie Cook notes when he says the dynamic is “out of control” for Democrats and that there is a 50/50 chance they will lose more than 20 Congressional seats in 2010.
That dynamic, however, represents only an opportunity for success – not a guaranty of victory – for Republicans nationally and in California. Whether Republicans capitalize on that success is story yet to be told.
In 2010, the Republicans will be able to tell voters that the Big Government solution didn’t work and that it has made matters worse for them and their children. Simply highlighting the tax burdens, the skyrocketing deficits, and Obama’s socialized health care plan, however, will not be enough.
Republicans must go beyond being the party of No. Instead, Republicans must have a plausible Republican Recovery Plan that they are ready to market to all Americans people for the 2010 cycle.
Here in California, Republicans have an opportunity to unseat Barbara Boxer and retain the Governorship. There can be little doubt that Barbara Boxer, Jerry Brown and Gavin Newsom will offer a Big Government/Higher Tax response to California’s continuing economic and budget problems. To counter that, Republicans must offer a California Recovery Plan that directly addresses the prosperity concerns of all Californians. That Plan must directly address the economic concerns of all Californians while understanding the various demographic complexities of our state.
The plan itself need not be complicated. It is no longer seriously debatable that California’s bad employer environment, i.e. 48th in the nation, has chased away jobs. To bring those jobs back, Republicans must offer a balanced plan to reinvigorate the California economy through even handed regulatory reductions and lower tax rates that will produce a more vibrant economy and higher revenues.
Just having a plan, however right, will not be enough for Republicans in California. As a recent Field Poll noted, the California electorate is more diversified than it was 10 years ago. While are over 158 different language spoke in our state, the diversity of this state does not have to spell trouble for Republicans. After all, Republicans does well in another diversified state, Florida.
In California, like the rest of the nation, economic issues cut across all ethnic, racial, and demographic lines. For instance, the fast growing group of small business owner is Latina women. They are as concerned for our state’s economic condition and want to see their business thrive.
Educational concerns in inner cities schools are also of paramount concern to all parents and should be of great concern to all Americans. That issue also cuts across all ethnic, racial, and demographic lines.
An important component of our success will be to diversify our messengers and candidates, in a manner where they can connect with the diverse voters of this state – farmers to farmers, engineers to engineers, Latinos to Latinos, and business owners to business owners. We must create, develop, and expand coalitions groups, messengers and candidates to help our Party reach all four corners of our state.
We can learn by example from the Republican Party in Florida, which has used diversified messengers and candidates to their great success. Indeed, there are ample opportunities for Republicans to have an open and honest conversation about the issues facing our state without trading in our Republican values. It is not a question of a way, it is a question of leadership.