Steve Poizner and Tom Campbell each ramped up their gubernatorial campaigns before Meg Whitman. Their calculation seemed to be that getting in early, they could gain an important edge.
Last week’s financial reports cast doubt on that strategy. By starting early, the Republican contenders turned the nomination contest into a long war. Such fights often are won by the army with more resources, and that army belongs to Whitman. The former eBay chief raised $6.7 million between Feb. 9 and June 30 – on top of millions of her own contributions.
Poizner and Campbell still should be able to compete. But the length of the campaign may work against them. They may have to devote more time to fundraising just to remain in the game, while Whitman, with a huge financial advantage, is free to focus on rounding up endorsements and rolling out policy proposals. One potential opportunity for Poizner and Campbell is high-volume, small-donor fundraising via Internet and social networks. Whitman hasn’t done much of this yet – her average contribution was about $5,900.
As I’ve written before, this campaign has started too early. In an interview Friday, top Whitman advisor Henry Gomez said that because of the state’s economic and budget problems, the campaign timetable has moved up. “The crisis is focusing people,” he said, adding that she was getting questions about the viability of the state as she campaigned.
But the crisis hasn’t focused the Democrats to the same degree as the Republicans. Attorney General Jerry Brown, the Democratic frontrunner, is raising money but has kept a relatively low profile so far (in part because he is not yet officially in the race). Assuming he runs, a general election contest between Whitman and Brown would pose an interesting strategic contest. Whitman’s large campaign team is in place; they’re running as though the election were this November, not next June. Brown, given his history, is unlikely to have anywhere near as big a staff (or to get rolling before later in the year).
Call it the hare versus the tortoise.
“The question is whether the game is on now, or whether the traditional timing still applies,” said Gomez.
Next year, we’ll find out.