Whitman’s Silent Majority
Meg Whitman badly bungled her handling of her voting record — by not addressing it at the beginning of her campaign and by putting out inaccurate information about her registration history.
But it’s not at all clear that the facts of the record – she was a non-voter before the age of 46, and a fairly low propensity voter after that – will hurt her very much. As a low propensity voter, Whitman isn’t an outlier. She’s very much in the California mainstream.
I live in Los Angeles, where more than 80 percent of registered voters regularly fail to turn out in local elections. The state legislators with whom a Gov. Whitman would be negotiating are often elected with support of 10 percent of adults eligible to vote – or less.
No Hurry for Leaders to Debate
Break out another chicken suit. The campaign silly season has moved over to include the Democrats.
No sooner had Attorney General Jerry Brown announced he was opening an account to collect money for a likely run for governor than San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom, the other guy in the Democratic primary, was out with a plan for 11 debates, one in each of the state’s media markets – Hello, Eureka – starting, well, right now.
“Now that there are two candidates for governor, we owe the Democratic voters of California an opportunity to compare our visions and platforms side-by-side,’’ Newsom said in a press release.
Nice idea. Nice try. Never happen.
Notes from the California Target Book Conference
The California Target Book, published by Fox and Hounds Daily contributor Allan Hoffenblum, tracks the state’s political races. The Target Book sponsored a conference yesterday to peer into the crystal ball at the 2010 races; the attitude of California voters; and a look at the dysfunction of California governance. Some notes jotted down at the conference:
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Democratic Pollster David Binder says its wrong to think voters are against all taxes. They are opposed to taxes on themselves but are willing to approve taxes on corporations and businesses. But, Binder admits, a counter argument that raising taxes on business could affect jobs in the state has some effect.
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Binder says Decline to State voters (DTS) are becoming disenchanted with the Republican Party. DTS voters make up 20% of the electorate, and as Republican pollster, Steve Kinney, commented, the independents decide elections.
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State Treasurer Bill Lockyer, in trying to explain the discord in the legislature, said he believes Republicans who serve in the legislature have changed since his day. They are less pragmatic.
Business and Environmental Groups Converge – Urge Governor’s Signature
As the Governor convenes a Global Climate Summit in Los Angeles this week, a bill awaiting signature on his desk will help achieve many of the objectives being discussed at the Summit. Indeed, when signed, SB 546 will help save millions of gallons of oil, encourage the re-refining of used oil, and help create green jobs in California – all with no cost to taxpayers or the general fund. And, the bill enjoys an interesting and refreshing pedigree as it is supported by both the business and environmental community.
Under SB 546 (Lowenthal) oil manufacturers have agreed to support, and voluntarily add to, an increase in the oil manufacturer’s fund, with the new resources dedicated to increased funding for municipal oil recycling programs, increased incentives for Do It Yourself (DIY) oil changers to recycle their oil, a science based Life Cycle Analysis of the disposition of used oil, direct incentives for re-refining used oil, and ensuring that California is not exporting used oil pollution to neighboring states. Because this program will be self-funded, not one penny will come out of the state general fund.
The future of Bay Area employment
The latest numbers show unemployment in California at 12.2 percent, its highest level since World War II. Bay Area counties are only slightly lower, in the range of 9 to 12 percent, and way above their rates of around 5 percent in December 2007.
To be sure, since 1970 state unemployment has soared near or over double digits several times, and each time the economy came back. In the early 1980s, amid a downturn in heavy manufacturing, state unemployment reached 11 percent in February 1983, only to come back down to near 8 percent within a year. In 1993, with major cuts in defense and aerospace jobs, state unemployment reached 9.9 percent in January, but the figure came down to near 8 percent by November 1994.
During those recessions, unemployment seemed endless, but employer and consumer confidence returned, and hiring commenced in significant numbers.
The current California recession differs from those in the past in at least two major ways.
One is its severity. The 12.2 percent rate (affecting more than 2.2 million workers) is not only the highest, but it does not cover the roughly 1.3 percent of the California workforce (more than 200,000 workers) classified as discouraged workers or marginally attached or the roughly 5.8 percent (nearly 1 million workers) employed less than full time for economic reasons.
Water vs. Football
The press reported recently that an L.A. businessman wants to build a 75,000 seat football stadium in the City of Industry. Now that local objections to the project have been settled, the state legislature plans to waive environmental and planning rules for the new structure, arguing that the stadium is a job-creating machine. A bill granting that waiver, which bends the rules every other builder must comply with, passed the state Assembly earlier this month and now awaits approval from the Senate.
I don’t get it. How can the state legislature even propose to “bend the rules” to complete a stadium for a mere Sunday afternoon sporting event but they can’t “bend the rules” to get water to one half of the state’s population?
No government in the history of civilized society has turned off a water supply for its people until now. Because of a protected fish, water pumps have been turned off, drying food-producing fields, killing jobs in Central California, and threatening water supply for all of Southern California. Water rates are skyrocketing and mandatory conservation, even water rationing, is the order of the day.