Happy election day and a big shout out to the few Californians who will actually take time to cast ballots today.
Elections in odd-numbered years are generally a thin soup of city council races and school board contests, with a few local-interest ballot measures tossed in. The turnout numbers are usually dismal, with the statewide primary election that’s still seven months away usually drawing far more attention from the press and the public.
The special congressional election in and around Contra Costa County to replace Democrat Ellen Tauscher will add a little spice to the day, however. Political prognosticators across the country will be trying to tease the results there, in New York’s 23rd Congressional District and in the Virginia governor’s race to see what they can tell us about the country’s response to President Barack Obama and his policies.
The answer, typically, is “Not much.” Local races generally revolve around local issues and it’s tough to argue that as Walnut Creek goes, so goes the nation.
Still, you’re hearing a bit of that talk in the 10th Congressional District race. On the one hand you have Democratic Lt. Gov. John Garamendi arguing that he will be an important and experienced vote for Obama in Washington, while Republican David Harmer repeats the GOP mantra of “Cut spending. Cut spending,” while reminding voters that Garamendi is a known associate of Nancy Pelosi.
While Democrats hold 48 percent to 29 percent registration edge over Republicans in the district and collected better than 60 percent of the vote in the September primary, a recent robo-poll showed Garamendi with only a 10-point lead that GOP leaders insisted was narrowing.
Maybe so, but there are a couple things to remember. First, most of the votes in the election are already in. Vote-by-mail ballots are expected to far outnumber those that will be cast at the polls today, so a late surge doesn’t mean nearly as much as it did back when nearly everyone voted on election day.
Election watchers should pay close attention to the first results released soon after the polls close at 8 p.m. If Garamendi takes a big lead in those early vote-by-mail ballots, there likely won’t be enough votes left out there to change the result.
Secondly, state GOP leaders like Contra Costa’s own Tom Del Beccaro are saying things like “If Harmer does anything within five points, that’s a major statement.” When one side is talking about moral victories the weekend before the election, it’s not a good omen for the underdog.
Garamendi’s presence in the race provides some added interest, since if he wins, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger will have to choose someone to take his spot as lieutenant governor.
While there are plenty of names being tossed around, political considerations will carry the day. Whoever Schwarzenegger picks will have to be confirmed by the Democrat-controlled Legislature. Since there is no way Democrats are going to agree to put a Republican with political ambitions in the lieutenant governor’s office, it will be tough to reach agreement on anyone other than a placeholder who agrees to just keep the seat warm until next year’s election.
Of course, Schwarzenegger chopped Garamendi’s budget by more than 60 percent this year, saying in so many words that the job really wasn’t worth spending money on. If the state didn’t have a lieutenant governor, how many Californians outside the walls of the state Capitol would even notice?
But if people are looking for an indication of the state’s direction, they should pay attention to the dozens of money measures on today’s ballots. Across the state, cities and school districts are looking for any possible way to recover revenue that disappeared in the recession.
School districts are looking for new or increased parcel taxes to keep from closing schools, firing teachers or slashing programs. Everywhere in California, cities are seeking ways to bring in more money. Salinas and Ventura want to boost sales taxes, Palo Alto wants to add a business tax and others are calling for new utility taxes, higher hotel taxes and anything else to generate desperately needed revenue.
Perris in Riverside County, for example, has seen its revenue drop by 20 percent over the past two years, with no end in sight. The city is proposing a parcel tax to raise $2 million earmarked for police and fire services.
California voters have a long-standing record of supporting local tax increases to help schools and provide needed services. But is that going to last in the face of 10 percent unemployment and a growing distrust in government at all levels?
If voters across the state decide to “Just Say No” to more taxes or government spending, it could force a number of candidates in next year’s elections to start rethinking their campaign strategy.
John Wildermuth is a longtime writer on California politics.