Throughout the 2008 campaign, California Democrats ran its printers seven days a week, issuing an endless stream of press releases touting their voter registration gains. With a certain smugness, Democrats pointed to the impact of a lengthy, involved primary battle between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama and each campaign’s reach to a large network of youth, minorities and first-time voters. This fueled an intriguing narrative for political commentators and the media that a new political realignment was taking shape – even prior to the election results in November
In the election aftermath, stories were written, proclamations were made, and rumors of the death of the Republican Party, here in California and across the nation, were greatly exaggerated. The wake of so-called “Age of Obama” – voters registration gains, an unseen fundraising behemoth, and the accompanying electoral tsunami – foretold a serious decline for the GOP that began with the loss of congress in 2006.
Yet only 9-short months after President Obama was sworn into office, record foreclosure rates, millions of lost jobs, overreaching on government run heath care, and a Democratic-owned stimulus plan have underscored the waste and ineffectiveness of key Democratic policies. Poll after poll continues to show that the public is leaving Democrats and their irresponsible, ineffective policies. This dissatisfaction has given resurgence to both the Republican Party and its activists.
So far this paradigm shift has been manifest in key electoral victories for the GOP, winning gubernatorial contests in Virginia and New Jersey. One of the most interesting takeaways from these victories is the manner in which they were won. In each case Democrats failed to resurrect the coalition of Obama supporters from one year prior.
In New Jersey, key urban areas failed to turnout for the incumbent Democratic governor while disaffected rural and suburban voters not only turned out, but ran up margins for the Republican candidate that hadn’t been seen in decades. Likewise in Virginia, key urban areas, particularly in North Virginia, failed to show up for the Democrat. Obama voters aren’t showing up for Democrats not named Obama – despite the President’s repeated efforts to campaign on their behalf.
In a study of what is possible in 2010, California’s 36th Assembly District illustrates the lost potential for the Democratic Party that was once so apparent in Barack Obama’s campaign.
In October of 2008 at the close of registration before the Presidential election, Democrats held 39.20% of all voter registrations. That percentage grew to a plurality of 39.68% on July 1st. As bank and auto bailouts became the norm, the economic stimulus failed to produce results, and statistics on saved jobs were revealed as false, voter registration in AD 36 has moved a full 2-percentage points, resulting in a swing from Democrat to a Republican plurality in registration. This is the first time in recent memory that a Democrat plurality shifted back to a Republican percentage majority.
As of November 12, 2009, the 36th Assembly district currently stands at 38.98% Democrat, 39.43% Republican.
Besides the increasingly hostile national climate faced by the Democrats, in less then two months the Democratic-controlled California legislature will be dealing with a $15 billion deficit, the potential early release of 40,000 convicted criminals, and a host of Democratic-sponsored measures that seek to increase taxes, add business regulations, and two pieces of legislation that would increase the price of a gallon of gasoline by 36-cents.
Republicans have a clear, immediate opportunity to capitalize on voter dissatisfaction with Democratic leadership and setup key victories in 2010 by turning the tide on voter registration margins. The results already seen in AD 36 are only the beginning of what will be changing voter demographics around the state. Investing in voter registration programs early could put some “targeted districts” out of reach, and others within reach. This will allow more opportunities to change the California political landscape come next November.
Eleven months represents several lifetimes in politics and the electoral landscape changes daily. But if by November 2010, the current economic situation remains the same or worsens, Democrats simply will not be able to overcome their ownership of this failed economy and failed attempt at recovery. Nationally, they control the house, senate and presidency; locally, they control the legislature. But more importantly, this total transfer of ownership renders their “Blame Bush” talking point further moot.