Good news for all those Steve Poizner fans that may have been wondering why his campaign for governor seems to have disappeared from the political landscape.
“As of today, we are on target … Poizner has the campaign, message and resources necessary to succeed. And he will.”
That’s from a letter to the “campaign grassroots team” from Jim Bognet, Poizner’s campaign manager. And if you can’t trust the campaign manager to tell the truth about the race …
Fact is, though, the letter reads like a hasty attempt to soothe nervous supporters, combined with a hint of whistling past the graveyard.
It’s no surprise that the grassroots GOP base Poizner has been courting since 2006 is getting antsy. They’ve been bombarded with radio ads for former eBay CEO Meg Whitman and seen polls like last month’s L.A. Times-USC survey, which not only had the state insurance commissioner running 25 points behind Whitman, but also showed him 17 points back of former San Jose Rep. Tom Campbell.
“Early and excessive spending by the Whitman campaign has had an impact on the polls,” Bognet admitted, but the polls this early are “largely meaningless.”
Especially if you’re running third in a three-person race.
Then there’s the question of money. Sure, Whitman has already put about $19 million of her own money into the campaign, compared to $3.8 from the family trust for Poizner (Campbell is probably collecting aluminum cans to pay his filing fee).
But last month, for example, Poizner took in about $40,000 in reported contributions of $5,000 or higher. Whitman in November? Right around $670,000.
In October, it was Poizner’s $145,000 to Whitman’s $640,000.
The Poizner campaign’s take of the fund-raising situation? Don’t worry; Steve will come up with the cash.
The lack of early visibility is a strategy, not a problem, Bognet insisted.
“Proper timing is a central tenet of our plan,” he said in the letter. The “overwhelming majority” of Poizner’s campaign cash “will be spent in 2010, when voters are engaged.”
Poizner’s campaign seems to be channeling Bill Simon’s 2002 primary effort against former Los Angeles Mayor Dick Riordan. A December 2001 Field Poll had Riordan leading Simon 42 percent to 5 percent. By late February, Simon was up 37 percent to 31 percent and cruised to victory in June.
Simon scored the upset by appealing directly to the GOP conservatives who show up for primary elections and then pumping millions of his own money into the campaign, a path Poizner is expected to follow.
Of course, the Los Angeles businessman also got plenty of help from Riordan, a self-proclaimed moderate who seemed to go out of his way to enrage Simon’s conservative supporters. And then there’s the nearly $10 million Democratic Gov. Gray Davis spent on TV ads helpfully reminding Republican primary voters that Riordan’s position on abortion over the years had been, to be kind, flexible.
Even given that, it’s still true that plenty of candidates who were measuring curtains in Sacramento months before election day have ended up giving the planned victory speech in their living room to audience made up of the dog and the kids. There’s plenty of time to the June primary, there are legions of undecided voters and it’s way too soon to be betting any serious money on the outcome.
But Poizner’s problem right now is one of perception. Sure, he can hold off on serious campaigning until voters are paying close attention to the governor’s race, which Bognet suggests will be “a few months into next year.” But Whitman is on the radio now, she’s visible far beyond the local GOP club circuit now, she’s raising a ton of money now and she’s on top of the polls now.
That’s all combining to create a buzz around her campaign, one that can get GOP voters thinking that just maybe Whitman is the candidate the party needs next November. And the more time Poizner gives Whitman to ride that voter-friendly wave, the harder – and more expensive – it’s going to be for him to change the minds of those primary voters next year.
John Wildermuth is a longtime writer on California politics.