Meg Whitman’s growing lead in the Republican primary for governor is worse news for Jerry Brown than it is for Steve Poizner.
The former eBay CEO has jumped out to a huge 41 percent to 11 percent lead over Poizner, the state insurance commissioner, in a poll released last night by the Public Policy Institute of California.
The survey gives Brown an increasingly narrow 41 percent to 36 percent lead over Whitman in a November match-up, but those numbers aren’t nearly as worrisome to the attorney general as Poizner’s weak showing.
Whitman has spent around $20 million, much of it going for months of radio advertising. She’s already put $39 million of her own money into the campaign and is primed to spend more.
Month after month of feel-good advertising is going to boost anyone’s poll numbers. The only way to slow Whitman’s growing momentum, as a political pro like Brown knows, is for someone to go out, take out some ads and rough her up a bit.
Of course, that costs money and that’s where Brown is depending on Poizner. The insurance commissioner made a bundle as a high-tech entrepreneur and has $19 million of his own money just waiting to be used in the campaign.
One of the reasons Brown’s still an unannounced candidate is that he’s trying to horde his campaign cash for the fall. He’d love to stand by and hold the coats as Whitman and Poizner burn millions slinging mud at each other in the GOP primary, knowing that each nasty, negative ad just makes voters that much more disgusted with the process — and the candidates.
Truth be told, it probably doesn’t matter much to Brown who he faces in November, as long as that Republican winner comes out of the primary bruised and bloody.
But if Poizner doesn’t find some traction in a hurry, Brown’s plan could go out the window. If Whitman continues to hold a 30-percentage-point lead, she might just decide to ignore Poizner during the primary season and start the general election early by aiming her cash at Brown.
Even worse for the attorney general, Poizner could just look at the race and decide not to throw good money after bad. Just because he put that $19 million into his campaign account last month doesn’t mean he has to spend that $19 million on the governor’s race. Poizner would be the instant favorite if he ran for re-election as insurance commissioner and, at 53, he’s young enough to bide his time for another run at the governor’s office, regardless of who wins in November.
Poizner and his campaign team insist they’re in the race to stay and are just waiting for that perfect moment to go on the offensive and start closing ground on Whitman.
The campaign took some baby steps in that direction this week with a three-page “Research Briefing” that used newspaper, magazine and web reports to slam Whitman for, among other things, her skimpy voting record, her campaign spending and her refusal to debate.
Still, dropping an e-mail to California reporters isn’t exactly the fiscal or political equivalent of those months of radio ads bombarding every hamlet in the state. And while Poizner is convinced that his long-running effort to connect with grassroots GOP groups across the state will pay off in June, the polls so far show precious little evidence that it’s working.
So what does that mean for Brown? While he’d much rather see Whitman attacked with Poizner’s money than with his own, he can only wait so long for that to happen. Whitman’s numbers keep improving and nervous Democrats are suggesting that Brown “could be our own Martha Coakley” and that it’s time to beg Sen. Dianne Feinstein or someone like Bay Area Rep. Jackie Speier to jump into the Democratic primary and rescue the party.
If Poizner finds his inner attack dog and starts spending some of his cash to tear away at Whitman’s lead in the polls, Brown likely will be content to keep raising campaign cash and doing attorney general events until close to the filing deadline in March.
But if Whitman’s bandwagon keeps gaining speed, Brown’s official campaign for governor may have to start sooner than he wants.
John Wildermuth is a longtime writer on California politics.