A One-Term Pledge for Jerry Brown?
One of the more bizarre conspiracy theories I heard recently was that Attorney General Jerry Brown persuaded San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom to drop out of the governor’s race by offering to support him later for the Lieutenant Governor’s office. In turn, Brown would declare he would serve only one-term paving the road for Newsom to move up.
All this without a threatening email from Mike Murphy! Sorry, I’m rejecting this one out-of-hand and I don’t even have to consult Garry South to see if such an arrangement was ever discussed.
But the one-term piece of the arrangement struck a chord. Could that be a device the soon to be 72 year-old Brown would employee to convince California voters that this turn through the governor’s office would be dedicated to cleaning up the mess before he rides into the sunset?
Money Key to Whitman’s Early Attack
If people are wondering why Meg Whitman, leading the GOP race for governor by 30 or 40 percentage points in the polls, would bother slamming Steve Poizner with a batch of attack ads, there’s a simple answer:
Why not?
In most California campaigns, money drives strategy, especially when it comes to the millions that are spent on a TV ad campaign. The bank balance determines when a campaign starts its advertising, where the ads run and how often voters are going to see them.
While a campaign team may want to go on the attack immediately, finances typically require them to hold off until they finish their run of ads introducing the candidate to the voters.
But with Whitman talking about putting $150 million of her own money into her run for governor, her campaign team is like the fat guy choosing desserts at the buffet: “I believe I’ll have them all.”
Crossover Voting in Open Primaries
The article in Friday’s Fox and Hounds titled, “What if the Open Primary were Used for the Governor’s Race in June?” paints a very inaccurate picture of what we might expect were the “top two open primary” in effect for the June election.
The article reports that a survey of 794 high propensity voters would break down as follows in an open primary: Meg Whitman 29 percent, Jerry Brown 25 percent, Steve Poizner 21 percent. The author contends that Democratic voters would vote “strategically” by crossing over to help nominate Republican Poizner as the weakest candidate to face Democrat Brown in the fall. “We believe that Democrats and Liberals are expressing a sentiment not for any candidate in particular but against Meg Whitman. This interpretation might give ammunition to those who argue voters could cause mischief in an open primary system.”
This poll and these conclusions are both counter-intuitive and run against the history of voting in an open primary. First, almost all other polling has shown that Poizner has very low name ID. Why would we think that vast numbers of Democrats would throw away their votes on a candidate they have never heard of? If they wanted to vote against Whitman, as the poll implies, they would logically vote for Jerry Brown. Hardcore liberal Democrats would not go to the polls to vote for the most conservative candidate for governor.
Issues Critical to California’s Recovery are Focus of CalChamber2010.com
Perhaps never before has the economic health of our state been so important to voters as in this election season. Just last week, I announced the launch of CalChamber2010.com, a new website designed to educate voters about the candidates’ stance on issues critical to job growth and renewed prosperity in our state. Now, more than ever, voters understand the role that a vibrant economy plays in enhancing quality of life for California’s working families. I suspect that many more voters this year will be looking at the candidates’ track records to determine how they will cast their ballot.
We developed CalChamber2010.com to be the go-to site for information on California’s Gubernatorial candidates. This resource provides first-of-its-kind comparisons of the three candidates. The site doesn’t deal with social issues, rather it focuses on issues of critical importance to the state’s economy and job climate. CalChamber2010.com focuses on nine areas: Budget and Spending; Jobs and the Economy; Taxes; Education; Health Care; Environment and Energy; Water; Public Safety; and Housing and Transportation. By highlighting these issues that are so important to the voters, the candidates will need to make them their highest priority!