Even long-time liberal Barbara Boxer has said it. Her 2010 Senate re-election campaign will be competitive – her first contested election since she was elected to the Senate in the early 1990s. According to an early March Field Poll, 51 percent of California voters hold an unfavorable opinion of Barbara Boxer – bad news for any incumbent.
In that same poll, Tom Campbell is statistically tied with Boxer in a head-to-head general election match-up, and holds a narrow lead over both Carly Fiorina and Chuck DeVore in a Republican primary. However, the most telling numbers in the Field Poll are that 41 percent of Republican primary voters are undecided. And, almost 60 percent of general election voters have “no opinion” of Tom Campbell, Carly Fiorina and Chuck DeVore.
So, while Campbell has an early lead in polling, his status as March frontrunner necessitates greater scrutiny of his candidacy.
First and foremost, Tom Campbell is a smart man and a good man, but he dropped out of the 2010 gubernatorial race because he couldn’t raise the money to stay relevant or competitive. He entered the Senate race early this year, has relevance as polling indicates, but his money woes continue.
In addition to perpetual money shortages, Campbell also has some significant credibility problems. His two Republican challengers will undoubtedly dig into these issues in the coming months and, if Campbell were to get the nomination, the Boxer camp will definitely exploit this, and, quite possibly, allow her to cruise to victory in November.
Republican candidates can make and are making great hay in 2010 by talking about the Democrats’ policies promoting a hyperactive big government, rampant deficit spending and higher taxes. No one epitomizes this big government, tax-and-spend philosophy more than Barbara Boxer.
In spite of his protestations to the contrary, Tom Campbell has a well-documented history of supporting tax increases – a record that puts him at odds with traditional Republican ideology and limits his ability to use it against Boxer. Campbell refused to sign a no tax pledge when he launched his Senate campaign in January 2010. He also proposed to raise taxes on gasoline. Equally troubling, Campbell supported a continuation of “temporary” tax increases to the sales tax, income tax and vehicle license fees. California voters, including many Democrats, overwhelmingly rejected this proposal in last May’s special election.
To make matters worse, Campbell has commented that he would not rule out taxing sales on the Internet and he has indicated support for a carbon emissions tax – think cap-and-trade – a misguided energy tax that would cost businesses, large and small, millions of dollars and would ultimately be paid for in higher energy bills by you and me. His wishy-washy stance on taxes should concern all fiscal conservatives.
Tax policies aside, more troubling and problematic are Campbell’s ties to a Florida college professor with links to terrorists, as well as his own anti-Israel record. The San Jose Mercury News wrote an excellent article outlining the issue.
While a law professor at Stanford, Campbell wrote a letter to the president of the University of South Florida asking her to reconsider Sammi Al-Arian’s firing. Mind you, Al-Arian went on Fox News’ O’Reilly show and talked about “Victory to Islam and Death to Israel.” When the controversy reared its head, Campbell stated he didn’t know about Al-Arian’s radical, jihadist past. In mishandling multiple attempts to answer questions about this incident, Campbell has fallen victim to the now-infamous question that has trapped politicians: what he knew and when he knew it.
What is more troubling is that Campbell’s defense of Al-Arian could easily be linked – think Boxer campaign commercial – to other anti-Israeli actions. He has also taken money from groups who have declared support for Hamas and Hezbollah. Campbell has also endorsed a group called “If Americans Knew,” a non-profit group intensely opposed to Israel that calls for an end to American support for the Jewish state.
Campbell’s anti-Israel stance may be explained or minimized, but not easily and certainly not effectively by someone running for the U.S. Senate. He would be carved up in a rough and tumble general election campaign and would cede this important foreign policy issue to the well-funded Barbara Boxer…a sure recipe for defeat.
Finally, and returning to my earlier statement, Campbell lacks the ability to raise significant campaign cash (look at his past inability to raise money and his current weak funding levels). Facing a tough re-election campaign, Barbara Boxer will pull no punches. Campbell won’t be able to respond to what will undoubtedly be a costly and nasty general election.
Republicans have a once-in-a-decade opportunity to mount an effective challenge to Barbara Boxer. The Party needs someone who is an outsider, someone with real life experiences that can run against the system…and, ultimately, someone who can match Barbara Boxer dollar-for-dollar in a bare-knuckle brawl for California’s U.S. Senate seat. Tom Campbell is a smart man and a nice man…but that’s not him.