It’s much
too early to start picking winners and losers for next November. In many of the potential targeted races
for congress and the state legislature, we won’t know until after the June 8
Primary who the Party nominees will be.
So, let’s
first talk about what we do know.
In November
2008, Barack Obama outpolled John McCain in 8 of 19 congressional districts, 5
of 15 state senate seats, and 12 of 29 assembly seats that are currently held
by a Republican.
There is not
a single Democratic-held congressional or state legislative district up for
election this year that John McCain carried in 2008.
For
Republicans to pick up any seats in November, they must defeat a Democrat
running in a seat won by Obama.
If the
latest Rasmussen poll taken in mid-May is to be believed, Obama’s current
approval rating in California stands at 61% – the same percentage Obama carried
this state in 2008.
For
Republicans to have any chance to pick up seats in November, they must nominate
a candidate for governor in June who can win in November.
Not too long
ago, it appeared that that just might happen. But Meg Whitman and Steve Poizner have moved so far to the
right – particularly on the immigration issue – one has to question whether or
not the winner will be able to come out of the Primary contest as a serious
contender in November.
But putting that
aside, following are the districts Democratic and Republican leaders are
looking at as potential November targets.
CONGRESS
CD3 – Dan Lungren won re-election with under 50% of the vote and the
Democratic nominee this year, unopposed in the June Primary, will be Ami Bera. He is an Indian-American (country of India) and a physician
who most recently stepped down as Associate Dean of Admissions at UC Davis
School of Medicine. During 2009, he raised just under $1 million. That level of fundraising assures that
this will be a targeted race.
CD44 – Ken Calvert narrowly won re-election against Bill Hedrick, an educator and president of the Rialto Education
Association. Hedrick raised and
spent less that $150,000 in 2008 but came in with 48% of the vote. In fact, he defeated Calvert in the
Riverside County portion of the district where 77% of the district voters
-including Calvert – reside. Hedrick is back for a repeat run.
CD45 – Dianne Feinstein in 2006,
Barbara Boxer in 2004 and Barack Obama in 2008 narrowly carried this district,
but so far no Democratic challenger has come close to defeating Mary Bono Mack for re-election. Her
2008 opponent, former Assemblymember Julie Bornstein, lost 59% – 41%. But Democrats keep trying and her
opponent this year will be Palm Springs Mayor Steve Pougnet, who – unopposed in the June Primary – is raising the
big bucks needed to run a truly competitive race.
Two other
Republican-held districts won by Obama that are on some "watch lists" are CD26
(David Dreier) and CD48 (John
Campbell). Dreier will be
running against Russ Warner, a
wealthy businessman who ran against Dreier in 2008 losing 53%-40%. Campbell will be running against Irvine
City Councilmember Beth Krom.
There are four
Democratic incumbents Republicans are looking at as possible targets:
CD11 – Jerry McNerney won this seat in 2006 by defeating incumbent
Republican Richard Pombo and won re-election in 2008 by defeating former
BOE/Assembly Member Dean Andal 55% – 45%.
This year,
no fewer than four Republicans – one woman, one Latino, and two white males –
are running in the June Primary. All
four are attending Tea Party rallies and claiming to be the "true conservative"
in the race. If there is a conservative/Tea
Party sweep this year, this is the one district that should reflect it.
CD18, represented by Dennis Cardoza and CD20, represented by Jim
Costa, are located in the Central Valley. With that area’s double-digit unemployment, severe water
shortages, and an electorate that are among the most independent voters in the
state, Republicans are looking at making a serious challenge against both
incumbents.
Cardoza’s
Republican opponent will be Mike
Berryhill, a farmer and a cousin of Assemblymembers Bill and Tom
Berryhill.
To run
against Costa, three Republicans have filed in the GOP Primary, the early
frontrunner being Andy Vidak, a
farmer and Tea Party supporter.
CD47 – Loretta Sanchez has never received a serious challenge since her 1996
upset win over Bob Dornan. National
Republican leaders recruited Assembly Member Van Tran, who is termed out this year, to run. But first, Tran has to win a Primary
against Anaheim school board member Katherine
Smith, and Tan Nguyen, who ran a
very controversial campaign against Sanchez in 2006. With 44% of the district’s
registered voters being Latino, a GOP win would be an upset.
STATE SENATE
Democrats
are two-votes short of having a two-thirds supermajority in the state Senate
and this year they have the opportunity of picking up the two seats:
SD12 – Republican Jeff Denham must give
up this seat due to term limits (now running for congress) and Democratic
Assemblymember Anna Caballero and
Republican Anthony Cannella, mayor
of Ceres and son of former Democratic Asm. Sal Cannella will face off in a
multi-million dollar slugfest this fall. Since Denham last ran for this seat in
2006, GOP registration has dropped 4 points, while Democratic registration has
increased by 3 points, with Democrats now having a 49% – 32% registration
advantage.
SD15 – Abel Maldonado resigned this
seat after being appointed lieutenant governor and a Special Election will be
held this year to fill Maldonado’s unexpired senate term. This will be a multi-million dollar
campaign between Republican Assembly Member Sam Blakeslee and former Democratic Assembly Member John Laird. Obama outpolled McCain in
this district 59% – 39%
If the
Republicans are to pick up a senate seat this year, it would most likely be in SD34, held by Democrat Lou Correa. Correa won this seat in 2006 by narrowly defeating then
Assembly Member Lyn Daucher 50.2% – 49%.
His Republican challenger this year will be LUCILLE KRING, an attorney and member of the Anaheim City
Council. But it must be noted that
GOP voter registration has dropped six points since the 2006 race, while Democratic
registration increased 3 points.
ASSEMBLY
Republicans
are looking to target two Democratic incumbents:
AD10 – Alyson Huber won this seat over Republican Jack Sieglock – a former San Joaquin County Supervisor – by a
margin of 474 votes. Sieglock is
back for a repeat and is on the top of the GOP target list. Registration is 39%
Democratic and 39% Republican; 17% registered independent.
AD15 – Joan Buchanan defeated Republican Abram Wilson – an African American and mayor of San Ramon – by a
margin of 52% – 48%. Since that
election, Buchanan ran for congress in a Special Election to fill the unexpired
term of Ellen Tauscher, who resigned her congressional seat to join the Obama
Administration. Buchanan was very
badly beaten in a multi-candidate race won by John Garamendi. Hoping that she has been weakened by
that race, Abram Wilson is back for a repeat run.
There are
seven Republican-held districts won by Obama that are Open Seats – meaning the
incumbent is not seeking re-election due to term limits, running for another
office or retiring.
Among the
seven, there are four that could be top November targets:
AD5 – An open seat due to Roger Niello
being termed out and a district that has seen a steep drop in GOP registration
since 2002 (minus six).
Competitive primaries on both sides and each party’s top vote getter can
expect a tough November race. Current registration is 39% Democratic, 38%
Republican.
AD30 – Incumbent Republican Danny
Gilmore, who narrowly outpolled Shafter Mayor Fran Florez in 2008, is not seeking re-election. Florez is back for a second run, but
first must win a competitive Primary race against Pete Parra, a former Kern County Supervisor and father of former
Democratic Assembly Member Nicole Parra.
Two
Republicans are running in the GOP Primary: Hanford dairyman David Valadao – endorsed by Gilmore and
the Assembly Republican leadership – and Stephanie
Campbell, an African American community activist and former Democrat.
Republicans
will spend big to hold on to this seat, Democrats will spend even more to put
it into the Democratic column.
Democrats have a 46% – 35% registration advantage.
AD33 – An open seat due to Sam
Blakeslee being termed out. Four Republicans are running in the June Primary
(see earlier posts on this race) and the top vote getter will face Democrat Hilda Zacarias, a member of the Santa
Maria City Council. Again, a
district that has seen a significant drop in GOP registration this past decade
(minus four), which places it out of the "safe Republican" column, though they
have a 40% – 36% registration advantage.
AD68 – An open seat due to Van Tran
being termed out. Though both
parties have a competitive primary, this is likely to be a race between
Republican Allan Mansoor, an O.C.
deputy sheriff and a member of the Costa Mesa City Council, and Democrat Phu Nguyen, a businessman and local
Vietnamese American community activist.
Republicans have a 41% – 33% registration advantage and McCain narrowly
outpolled Obama here 50% – 48%.
And the large Vietnamese American population – centered in what is
called "Little Saigon" – has voted reliably Republican in the past. The unknown factor is what happens to
that vote come November when the Democrat is Vietnamese American and the
Republican is white.
There are
five Republicans incumbents running for re-election in assembly districts on by
Obama in 2008: Stephen Knight
(AD36), Cameron Smyth (AD38), Brian Nestande (AD64), Martin Garrick (AD74), and Nathan Fletcher (AD75).
I am going
to wait until after the June Primary and see which Republicans are at the top
of the ticket before making any predictions on these races.