What Now? The Economy Might Hold the Key
With Governor Jerry Brown declaring the end of budget
negotiations there is plenty of uncertainty of how the budget gap of over
$15-billion will be resolved. Two main avenues get all the buzz: A majority
vote scheme to put tax measures on the ballot or seeking a November ballot
initiative. I believe the second approach is most likely.
Elsewhere on this site, Loren Kaye discusses the possibility
of seeking a majority vote to place taxes on the ballot and the hurdles in the
path of that approach. Perhaps the governor or Democrats in the legislature
might try to test the legal obstacles along that path by filing a lawsuit
themselves and search for a friendly judge to get a ruling on the majority vote
approach. Possible–but unlikely.
The November ballot approach is much more likely, especially
if the state’s economy improves. If the state brings in more dollars than
projected, the budget can be massaged past the end of the fiscal year and
initiatives would be filed for November in an attempt to secure even more
revenue. Look for the new state revenue figures as a portent of this approach.
Some cuts will have to be made and schools are the likely
target. However, cuts to schools could well play into the hands of those promoting
a November tax initiative. With the school year starting a short two months
before the election, news of the cuts will be fresh in the minds of
voters.
It’s Game Over for Bipartisan Budget
You can’t have a game when only one team wants to play.
Since the Republicans don’t want to play in the effort to build a realistic state budget, Gov. Jerry Brown Tuesday called off the game.
That shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone who was paying attention Friday evening when Republicans released their list of requests/demands for what they needed before they would give Gov. Jerry Brown the votes to put his tax extension plan on the June ballot.
It was a Christmas list that included every proposal California Republicans have dreamed of for the past decade, along with changes they wanted made to the list of painful spending cuts Brown had browbeaten his unhappy fellow Democrats into passing.
New majority vote tax threat
How frantic are
Democrats in the Legislature to place a tax measure on a special election
ballot? If negotiations with legislative Republicans break down for good,
Democrats might just be desperate enough to assert new legal authority that
would bypass existing constitutional protections.
As I’ve noted earlier, the Constitution grants the
Legislature three mechanisms by which they can place a question before the
voters: proposing a general obligation bond or constitutional amendment,
each of which requires a two-thirds vote of the Legislature, or proposing an
amendment to a statute that was approved by voter initiative, which requires a
simple majority vote of the Legislature. The latter two mechanisms could be
used to present to the voters the tax extension question. The Governor has
proposed and is still supporting a constitutional amendment, ACA 2 in the first extraordinary session.
However, legal scholars have construed the initiative amendment authority to be
quite narrow, and Democrats in the Legislature seem to be backing away from
that route to the ballot.
Public safety employee contract may not convince skeptics
If you’re already skeptical about the state’s ability to cut billions of dollars from projected spending levels, the new contract Gov. Jerry Brown’s administration has negotiated with public safety employees will not do much to win your confidence.
A review of the deal by the nonpartisan Legislative Analyst’s office shows how far it will likely come from achieving the 10 percent savings that Brown and lawmakers pledged to make it the next round of state employee contracts. The analyst believes the contract will actually increase costs this year, save just 2.8 percent next year and then start adding to the state’s payroll costs again the year after next.
The contract is for Unit 7, the public safety workers who protect state lands and buildings, issue licenses and permits, and conduct investigations. They include California Highway Patrol dispatchers, DMV examiners, Department of Justice agents, park rangers, and Department of Mental Health police. They also include fraud investigators for the automotive repair program.