According to the USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll released over the weekend, voters want to
vote on taxes. The poll says they also like the idea of spending limits (80%
support), and pension reform (70% in favor.) The poll did not ask respondents
if they wanted to vote on spending limits and pension reforms, but I’ll bet
they are just itching to do so. So here’s what we do: let them vote on all of
them.
Some argue that if the voters think they can solve the
current budget situation with tax increases and long-term structural budget
problems with spending limits and pension reform they may be a step ahead of
their elected representatives in Sacramento.
Of course, just because the poll cites voters’ positions
today, campaigns on all these issues could change their minds before the voters
actually mark their ballots.
Furthermore, the poll was not exactly clear on where the
voters stood on the tax issue.
One question asked respondents if they support Governor
Jerry Brown’s plan of extending income, sales and vehicle taxes to cover $14
billion of the $26 billion deficit. The poll indicated voters supported the
plan 52% to 38%.
However, another question clouds the result of how much voters
actually support raising all $14 billion in taxes.
Question 36 in the poll states that the governor and
legislature reduced the $26 billion deficit to $14 billion with spending cuts.
It then asked respondents how they want to see the rest of the deficit closed, through spending cuts, tax increases or
a combination of both. Combination of both wins the majority with 53%, to spending
cuts 33%, and taxes 9%.
So does that mean those voting for a combination of both
cuts and taxes want the $14 billion hole filled only half by taxes? That would
amount to $7 billion in tax increases – half of what the governor is asking
for.
That’s the trouble with determining policy by polling.
Voters will often go for the most logical or split-the-difference kind of
answers in a poll. Their decision could be different when they actually vote.
It should surprise few that respondents to this poll said
they wanted to support a budget solution with a mix of revenue and cuts;
support the Brown plan, which is described as a part revenue, part cuts budget
fix, and go for the combination of cuts and taxes to fix what is left of the budget deficit after cuts
are made, as Question 36 proposes.
In looking at that question of using a combination of cuts
and revenue to fill the rest of the
budget hole, are voters supporting the Brown plan with its $14 billion in taxes
or half of that amount?
And is support for spending limits and pension reform as
strong as the poll indicates?
I guess the way to find out is let ‘em vote … on everything.
To view the poll results, click
here.