Social Media Proves a Powerful Measure of Voter Sentiment and Accurate Predictor of Gubernatorial Race
My company, Activate Direct, teamed up with Tulchin Research and PWSMC Social Media consulting, to release a detailed study of social media content related to the 2010 California governor’s race between candidates Meg Whitman and Jerry Brown. The study demonstrates how campaigns can use techniques of "social listening" as both a real-time poll and an ongoing focus group, augmenting traditional public opinion research methods and identifying potential crises early.
Study Highlights
The analysis unlocked several key findings:
- Social and polling data were closely correlated.
- The ratio of positive to negative social sentiment was very much in line with the ratio of favorable to unfavorable ratings shown by traditional polling.
- Social chatter was driven by key campaign events.
Main Street Menace of the Week: Senate Bill 104 (Steinberg)
While the legislature is in session, the National
Federation of Independent Business/California will be profiling anti-small
business bills and the adverse effect they would have on California’s job
creators. This is the fourth column of
the 2011 series.
Sometimes it seems like the Capitol is a lot like the movie
"Groundhog Day". The same bills keep
coming back year after year, like a nightmare from which you can’t awaken. This year is no different for small business
owners, as the threat of card check – the undemocratic formation of unions in
the workplace through bullying and intimidation – comes back to haunt them once
again in the form of Senate Bill 104 by Senate President Pro-tem Darrell
Steinberg.
Let’s point out the facts
surrounding the card check legislation in California. If signed into law,
it will diminish worker freedom. Currently a secret ballot election is
required for workers to decide to unionize. Under the card check plan, a worker
could be approached by a union representative and asked to sign a card in
support of unionization. The union rep now speaks for the worker. How easy is it for a worker to turn down a
supervisor or union rep?
California is the Worst State for Business, Seriously!
I wish the title were an exaggeration, but sadly, it is not. On May 3rd, CEO Magazine came out with its annual survey of 550 business leaders asking about the best and worst states for doing business. The survey looked at a wide range of issues that included taxation, regulation, workforce quality and living environment. California came in dead last. The bottom five also included Michigan, New Jersey, Illinois and New York. What is interesting is that these are powerhouse states, with large populations and large employment bases. With all due respect, we are not talking about West Virginia or New Mexico (though they did not rank that high, either).
I spoke to the writer for the survey, J.P. Conlon, and asked whether they focused on litigation climate as one of the issues. He told me they did not, but that you could interpret areas like regulation and workforce quality and living environment as areas affected by litigation.
Less Government, Please
Treasurer Bill Lockyer caused waves last month when he suggested that given Republican lawmakers’ opposition to higher taxes, their districts should bear the brunt of spending cuts. He said, “The people who want less government ought to be at the front of that line to get less government.”
Senate Democrat Leader Darrell Steinberg expressed openness to the idea, saying, “You don’t want to pay for government, well then, you get less of it.” He added that any district-targeted cuts should not hurt “kids or the vulnerable” but instead be limited to “convenience services that affect adults.”
Outrage to the proposal—appropriately so—came fast and furious.
Senate Vice-Chair Bob Huff said the proposal was “just nuts.”
Jon Coupal of the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Foundation compared the idea to the strong arm tactics of an organized crime protection racket. He also suggested it might violate the equal protection guarantees found in both our state and federal constitutions.
Even the Los Angeles Times called the plan “ham-fisted and wrong.”