Given the great news about Osama Bin Laden, we at Public Opinion Strategies have updated our chart that looks at the historical bump Presidents receive from Major National Security Events. The table goes back to Pearl Harbor and President Franklin Roosevelt. This chart is VERY interesting.
On average, the President’s approval rating increases 13 points and a bump lasts an average of 22 weeks. That does not include the 105 week bump that President George W. Bush received after 9/11.
The “bump” on job approval shows the total increase in approval rating from prior to the event. The duration of the increase indicates the number of weeks until the President’s job approval rating returned to the prior level (so, for instance, the 35 point bump that George W. Bush got did not last the entire 105 weeks – the spike was the high, and it took 105 weeks to return to the pre-9/11 level.
Again, putting aside 9/11, the longer duration bumps came in lengthy situations. Besides 9/11, President Ford’s 25 week bump for the Mayaguez incident is the longest bump after a one-day situation (I know the Mayaguez lasted longer, but the successful retaking of the Mayaguez (which caused the bump) was a one-day event.
I am certainly not about to predict the length or size of the bump that Obama receives. But, it is unlikely to run through next year unless the economy improves dramatically as well.
As the President receives his deserved bump, keep this link handy to track the length of his bump compared to his predecessors.