It was never going to be easy for Governor Jerry Brown to
get the legislative votes to get his tax proposals on the ballot, never mind
have them passed by the voters. But, new circumstances make the effort more
difficult: Increased revenue is flowing into California’s treasury and the
reported coming "occupation" of the Capitol by those who demand more tax
revenue.
The revenue surge of over $2.5 billion dollars brings with
it the question of how deep the deficit really is. Will the revenue surge
continue? Will tax increases undercut the economic growth that is behind the
surge? Legislators and voters considering the answers to these questions may
not be so eager to support new taxes.
On Friday, reporter and Fox and Hounds blogger Daniel
Weintraub co-authored
an article with Michael Gardner on HealthyCal.org about the revenue
increase. While acknowledging that there was no certainty that the revenue
surge will continue, the authors pointed to hopeful signs that the economy is
rebounding.
Citing
sources and numbers that indicate last year’s economy was stronger than expected
the article looked ahead at "two other numbers (that) provide even more
evidence that the economy is expanding rapidly." Withholding from paychecks is
up 12 percent over last year at this point, even though the temporary income
tax increase expired at year’s end; and estimated tax payments, mainly from small
business owners, investors and the self-employed, is up nearly 20 percent from
the year before.
One
legitimate question to ask is will a tax increase put the clamps on these
hopeful economic pluses? A simmering economic fire doesn’t need to be smothered
with a blanket of renewed taxes.
Meanwhile,
protests are planned this week for the capitol. The California Teachers
Association, which first announced rallies at the capitol, will be joined by
other groups, which the Orange
County Register says will add to the "circus-like atmosphere" in the
capitol.
Out-of-hand or unseemly demonstrations could work against
Brown’s proposals. Taxpayers watching the "occupation" of the state capitol
building are not likely to be reaching for their wallets to pay more in taxes.
Like the mythological Sisyphus, Brown is pushing his
boulder up the hill and seeing it roll back at him because of changing fiscal
circumstances and the actions of others.