In my last post, I made my early picks as to where the
action will be in November 2012. Now, let’s look at the new congressional
districts that may be in play in November 2012.
3rd
Congressional District: JOHN GARAMENDI (D). Garamendi resides in the
southern portion of this new district and only 22% of the voters reside in his
old district. The district stretches north to encompass large areas that are
currently represented by Reps. Wally Herger (R) and Mike Thompson (D). Jerry Brown
outpolled Meg Whitman 50% – 43%, while Carly Fiorina narrowly outpolled Barbara
Boxer 46% – 45%. This is not a safe Democratic district, so let’s see if
Republicans can recruit a top tier candidate to challenge him.
7th
Congressional District: DAN LUNGREN (R). Lungren will again face his 2010
opponent, Ami Bera. But Asm. Alyson Huber (D), who was not treated
well in the Assembly redistricting, has made noises of possibly entering this
race. Brown outpolled Whitman 50% – 45%, while Fiorina outpolled Boxer 49% –
43%. This will be a top TARGET.
21st
Congressional District: OPEN SEAT: This is almost all of the old Jim Costa
(D) district, but he ran very poorly here in 2010 and has decided to move into
the new 16th District (Merced). GOP Asm. David Valadao will run here and his Democratic opponent is likely
to be state Sen. Michael Rubio.
However, former state Sen. Dean Florez
is making noise about entering the race. Andy Vidak, who ran a strong race
against Costa in 2010, has endorsed Valadao. This is a very competitive
district, where Brown narrowly outpolled Whitman 48% – 44%, while Fiorina
outpolled Boxer 50% – 40%. The Republican Congressional Campaign Committee has
placed this race at the top of their TARGET list.
24th
Congressional District LOIS CAPPS (D): A very competitive district. The new district
falls eight percent in Democratic registration from Capps’ current district,
while GOP registration rises nine percent.
Brown narrowly outpolled Whitman 47 % – 46%, while Fiorina and Boxer
tied at 46%. The National Republican Congressional Committee is strongly
supporting former Lt. Gov. Abel
Maldonado (R) and has this race as an early top TARGET.
26th
Congressional District OPEN SEAT: Rep. Elton Gallegly (R) represents most
of this district though it excludes his home in Simi Valley. The district is
seven percent less Republican and six percent more Democratic than his current district.
Whitman outpolled Brown 47% – 46%. But, like the Garamendi district, this
district comes into play only if the Democrats are able to recruit a top tier
candidate.
31st
Congressional District OPEN SEAT: This was a last minute district
drafted by the Redistricting Commission. Earlier drafts had two safe Democratic
seats and Joe Baca (D) was primed to run for one, and Sen. Gloria
McLeod (D) had announced for the other. But this district has only a
four-point Democratic registration edge; Baca’s current district has a 20-point
Democratic edge. So the new safe Democratic district, CD 35, could entice
Baca (Asm. Norma Torres is also looking at the new CD35). Rep. David
Dreier (R) represents the Upland and Rancho Cucamonga portions of this
district, and this is the only district he would have a chance to win.
His 2008 and 2010 opponent, businessman Russ Warner (D), has
already announced for this seat.
POSSIBLE SAME PARTY NOVEMBER RUNOFFS
44TH Congressional District JANICE HAHN (D): This district was drawn by the Redistricting Commission
to be one of three African American districts but newly elected Cong. Janice
Hahn (D) of San Pedro, who is not Black, has announced. She resides in the
district and all the L.A. precincts in this new CD overlap the city council
district (15th) she represented prior to her election to congress. Asm.
Isadore Hall (D) of Compton also may run here. Cong. Laura Richardson
(D), who resides outside the new district in Long Beach, has announced that she
will run here, but the scandal prone congresswoman would carry heavy baggage
into a reelection campaign. The composite 2010 Republican vote in this new
district was 18%. Therefore, this could be a district where the two top vote
getters are both Democrats, and would face a runoff in November.
30th Congressional District HOWARD BERMAN (D) – BRAD SHERMAN (D): The battle everyone, except Berman
and Sherman, are waiting to watch.
Should no strong Republican enter the race (meaning no Craig Huey type)
and they in fact do run against each other, a November runoff could come about.
Stay tuned.
NEXT: State Senate