On January 17th the Leadership California Institute held a viewing of the PBS Election Special “Race 2012” that examined the role of race in the presidential campaign. While it’s now common knowledge that race played a critical role in determining President Obama’s re-election and Mitt Romney’s defeat, the bigger question is, what does a racially polarized America mean for the future of the country?
As always, California may hold the key to understanding America’s future. While the rest of the country struggles to understand what this new racial landscape looks like, California long turned that corner politically. Demographically, California will see Latinos surpass whites as the largest ethnic group sometime this summer. Asians are now the fastest growing ethnic group in the state. Soon, the concept of a majority-minority district will be rendered all but meaningless.
But just when we thought we had racial politics all figured out here in California, a closer examination reveals that over the next decade the critical ethnic voting block may be….drum roll please…the white vote.
That’s right — the white vote.
You see, despite all the chatter among political professionals and ethnic leaders that the “Latino,” “Asian” and “African-American” votes are not monolithic, the truth is that, as voters, they are. Each ethnic group in California votes as a bloc — with one exception: white voters.
This explains why Texas is so red and California is so blue and why both states are very likely to stay that way for a long time. Despite having very similar demographics, the states couldn’t be more different politically. And while much has been made about Latino voters in Texas and their greater willingness to vote Republican, that idea changed in 2012 when Texas Latinos voted in an eerily similar fashion as their Latino counterparts in California and other states (75-25) — effectively creating a national Latino voting bloc.
So why isn’t Texas bluer? The answer is simple – whites in Texas are overwhelmingly conservative, if not Republican, voters. In California white voters are not…well, monolithic.
Some quick notes on white voters and Assembly seats help illustrate the point:
- Of the top three Assembly seats with the greatest number of white voters, two are represented by Democrats (Assembly Member Wesley Chesbro and Assembly Member Marc Levine – Assembly Member Brian Dahle has the district with the greatest number of white voters). Dahle’s district is 94% white, Chesbro’s is 90% and Levine’s is 87%.
- Of the top 10 Assembly seats with the greatest number of white voters, half are Democrats and half are Republicans.
Other interesting facts on white voters:
- The Assembly Member who represents the least number of white voters is Speaker John Perez, who also happens to represent the fewest number of registered voters in the Assembly. AD 53 is 30% white with 44,755 registered white voters.
- As a percentage, Assembly Member Ed Chau represents the fewest white voters at 26% (54,229) and represents what is the first Asian-American districted seat in the country.
- Assembly Member Curt Hagman represents the most diverse district of any Republican. His district has 53% white voters, and there are only 19 districts with fewer white voters. The Asian and Latino registered voters in this district are exactly the same at 21%.
- Assembly Member Tim Donnelly’s district has fewer white voters (74%) and more Latino voters (23%) than Rocky Chavez’s district (80% white and 14% Latino).
- Of the 15 Assembly districts with the smallest percentage of white voters, 13 are represented by a Latino legislator (Assembly Member Tom Daly and Assembly Member Ed Chau are the exceptions. Daly benefitted from a multi-Latino Democrat primary, and Chau represents the states only Asian seat).
I’ve included a spreadsheet below of Assembly districts rank-ordered by the number of white voters. The data was provided by PDI.
The inescapable trend here is that white voters in California are voting more ideologically and partisan based on class than any other group. Wealthier whites and poor Latinos are voting for the same party and as long as that continues, Republican fortunes are not promising.
Republicans may have a bigger class problem than a race problem. Ironically, the chances of a GOP resurgence grows slimmer as California’s middle class grows smaller — or until the coalition of working class Latino moderates and wealthier white progressives in the Democrat party becomes untenable.
You can reach Mike Madrid at twitter handle (@madrid_mike) and email address ([email protected]).
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Assembly District Ranked by Number of White Voters
| TOTAL | WHITE | ASIAN | LATINO | ||||||
| PARTY | REP | DISTRICT | 18,414,624 | 12,070,548 | 66% | 1,694,057 | 9% | 4,054,431 | 22% |
| R | Brian Dahle | 1ST AD | 269,158 | 251,947 | 94% | 2,970 | 1% | 11,680 | 4% |
| D | Wes Chesbro | 2ND AD | 263,011 | 235,402 | 90% | 4,450 | 2% | 20,040 | 8% |
| D | Marc Levine | 10TH AD | 268,275 | 233,931 | 87% | 9,102 | 3% | 19,426 | 7% |
| R | Beth Gaines | 6TH AD | 276,381 | 240,314 | 87% | 10,950 | 4% | 18,632 | 7% |
| R | Frank Bigelow | 5TH AD | 240,576 | 208,857 | 87% | 2,933 | 1% | 25,987 | 11% |
| R | Dan Logue | 3RD AD | 230,441 | 193,207 | 84% | 5,128 | 2% | 24,859 | 11% |
| R | Brian Jones | 71ST AD | 239,925 | 199,631 | 83% | 5,769 | 2% | 30,614 | 13% |
| D | Ken Cooley | 8TH AD | 245,982 | 204,595 | 83% | 12,660 | 5% | 22,740 | 9% |
| D | Richard Bloom | 50TH AD | 317,700 | 262,004 | 82% | 17,599 | 6% | 23,019 | 7% |
| D | Toni Atkins | 78TH AD | 274,744 | 224,954 | 82% | 13,716 | 5% | 28,695 | 10% |
| R | Diane Harkey | 73RD AD | 303,677 | 246,629 | 81% | 17,838 | 6% | 28,046 | 9% |
| R | Rocky Chavez | 76TH AD | 231,447 | 185,668 | 80% | 9,645 | 4% | 31,461 | 14% |
| D | Joan Buchanan | 16TH AD | 287,211 | 229,479 | 80% | 26,848 | 9% | 18,314 | 6% |
| D | Mariko Yamada | 4TH AD | 241,148 | 192,004 | 80% | 9,165 | 4% | 35,476 | 15% |
| R | Brian Nestande | 42ND AD | 218,759 | 174,095 | 80% | 5,111 | 2% | 36,225 | 17% |
| R | Katcho Achadijian | 35TH AD | 232,524 | 184,503 | 79% | 6,598 | 3% | 38,163 | 16% |
| D | Mark Stone | 29TH AD | 277,460 | 219,342 | 79% | 17,077 | 6% | 33,610 | 12% |
| R | Allan Mansoor | 74TH AD | 312,167 | 241,418 | 77% | 31,929 | 10% | 26,256 | 8% |
| R | Marie Waldron | 75TH AD | 223,453 | 171,191 | 77% | 10,614 | 5% | 37,406 | 17% |
| R | Brian Maienschein | 77TH AD | 262,397 | 199,462 | 76% | 32,365 | 12% | 21,849 | 8% |
| R | Shannon Grove | 34TH AD | 224,451 | 170,504 | 76% | 5,822 | 3% | 43,499 | 19% |
| D | Jim Frazier | 11TH AD | 227,172 | 170,678 | 75% | 15,327 | 7% | 35,903 | 16% |
| D | Nancy Skinner | 15TH AD | 277,039 | 207,504 | 75% | 30,292 | 11% | 28,823 | 10% |
| D | Susan Bonilla | 14TH AD | 243,362 | 181,238 | 74% | 24,149 | 10% | 31,608 | 13% |
| D | Roger Dickinson | 7TH AD | 215,347 | 159,439 | 74% | 14,794 | 7% | 34,256 | 16% |
| R | Tim Donnelly | 33RD AD | 198,808 | 146,700 | 74% | 4,254 | 2% | 44,943 | 23% |
| D | Das Williams | 37TH AD | 265,086 | 195,331 | 74% | 9,274 | 3% | 55,785 | 21% |
| R | Melissa Melendez | 67TH AD | 213,972 | 157,413 | 74% | 8,860 | 4% | 43,915 | 21% |
| R | Kristin Olsen | 12TH AD | 219,389 | 159,834 | 73% | 6,349 | 3% | 46,419 | 21% |
| R | Scott Wilk | 38TH AD | 264,079 | 192,107 | 73% | 20,595 | 8% | 39,122 | 15% |
| D | Holly Mitchell | 54TH AD | 279,876 | 202,684 | 72% | 19,907 | 7% | 44,202 | 16% |
| D | Rich Gordon | 24TH AD | 230,722 | 165,968 | 72% | 32,913 | 14% | 20,135 | 9% |
| D | Steve Fox | 36TH AD | 211,744 | 148,601 | 70% | 6,787 | 3% | 51,886 | 25% |
| D | Paul Fong | 28TH AD | 249,211 | 172,225 | 69% | 39,185 | 16% | 23,318 | 9% |
| D | Kevin Mullin | 22ND AD | 247,861 | 171,274 | 69% | 35,753 | 14% | 30,941 | 12% |
| D | Bonnie Lowenthal | 70TH AD | 260,384 | 179,181 | 69% | 20,468 | 8% | 55,345 | 21% |
| R | Jim Patterson | 23RD AD | 252,050 | 173,415 | 69% | 13,668 | 5% | 53,924 | 21% |
| D | Chris Holden | 41ST AD | 282,116 | 194,069 | 69% | 22,646 | 8% | 53,243 | 19% |
| D | Tom Ammiano | 17TH AD | 293,425 | 201,536 | 69% | 51,217 | 17% | 31,889 | 11% |
| D | Rob Bonta | 18TH AD | 242,943 | 166,798 | 69% | 38,213 | 16% | 30,874 | 13% |
| R | Jeff Gorrell | 44TH AD | 230,965 | 157,884 | 68% | 14,227 | 6% | 53,038 | 23% |
| D | Bob Blumenfield | 45TH AD | 256,340 | 174,872 | 68% | 19,381 | 8% | 44,294 | 17% |
| D | Steven Bradford | 62ND AD | 245,801 | 167,557 | 68% | 11,198 | 5% | 58,907 | 24% |
| R | Don Wagner | 68TH AD | 269,208 | 182,525 | 68% | 35,168 | 13% | 40,057 | 15% |
| D | Al Muratsuchi | 66TH AD | 279,961 | 188,523 | 67% | 44,877 | 16% | 36,619 | 13% |
| D | Richard Pan | 9TH AD | 219,980 | 147,646 | 67% | 29,480 | 13% | 33,846 | 15% |
| R | Mike Morrell | 40TH AD | 215,416 | 140,491 | 65% | 11,828 | 5% | 58,214 | 27% |
| R | Connie Conway | 26TH AD | 161,629 | 102,797 | 64% | 3,049 | 2% | 53,712 | 33% |
| D | Shirley Weber | 79TH AD | 231,153 | 145,871 | 63% | 25,592 | 11% | 54,373 | 24% |
| D | Adrin Nazarian | 46TH AD | 217,444 | 136,765 | 63% | 14,811 | 7% | 51,528 | 24% |
| D | Susan Talamantes Eggman | 13TH AD | 189,006 | 112,742 | 60% | 19,425 | 10% | 50,158 | 27% |
| D | Jose Medina | 61ST AD | 211,816 | 124,560 | 59% | 9,388 | 4% | 73,430 | 35% |
| D | Adam Gray | 21ST AD | 182,711 | 106,878 | 58% | 5,399 | 3% | 65,761 | 36% |
| R | Eric Linder | 60TH AD | 187,435 | 108,097 | 58% | 10,489 | 6% | 64,201 | 34% |
| D | Phil Ting | 19TH AD | 265,897 | 149,972 | 56% | 79,294 | 30% | 27,507 | 10% |
| R | Travis Allen | 72ND AD | 272,107 | 153,220 | 56% | 76,578 | 28% | 37,149 | 14% |
| D | Isadore Hall | 64TH AD | 213,767 | 119,518 | 56% | 13,083 | 6% | 77,633 | 36% |
| D | Mike Gatto | 43RD AD | 257,061 | 142,843 | 56% | 27,890 | 11% | 41,057 | 16% |
| D | Bill Quirk | 20TH AD | 219,143 | 120,223 | 55% | 42,764 | 20% | 40,841 | 19% |
| D | Sharon Quirk-Silva | 65TH AD | 234,488 | 128,076 | 55% | 43,595 | 19% | 54,991 | 23% |
| R | Curt Hagman | 55TH AD | 260,839 | 139,470 | 53% | 56,063 | 21% | 55,531 | 21% |
| D | Luis Alejo | 30TH AD | 174,999 | 85,834 | 49% | 8,883 | 5% | 77,678 | 44% |
| D | Reginal Jones-Sawyer | 59TH AD | 163,697 | 79,915 | 49% | 2,578 | 2% | 77,896 | 48% |
| D | Bob Wieckowski | 25TH AD | 199,590 | 91,636 | 46% | 63,531 | 32% | 29,400 | 15% |
| D | Cheryl Brown | 47TH AD | 175,877 | 77,867 | 44% | 6,278 | 4% | 88,367 | 50% |
| D | Rudy Salas | 32ND AD | 132,011 | 57,351 | 43% | 4,203 | 3% | 68,864 | 52% |
| D | Manuel Perez | 56TH AD | 159,007 | 68,640 | 43% | 2,787 | 2% | 85,062 | 53% |
| D | Henry Perea | 31ST AD | 165,901 | 70,112 | 42% | 8,598 | 5% | 82,386 | 50% |
| D | Norma Torres | 52ND AD | 176,387 | 73,715 | 42% | 11,088 | 6% | 88,243 | 50% |
| D | Roger Hernandez | 48TH AD | 215,311 | 81,602 | 38% | 22,656 | 11% | 106,723 | 50% |
| D | Ben Hueso | 80TH AD | 177,194 | 65,909 | 37% | 13,173 | 7% | 94,316 | 53% |
| D | Anthony Rendon | 63RD AD | 187,362 | 67,516 | 36% | 9,737 | 5% | 107,218 | 57% |
| D | Raul Bocanegra | 39TH AD | 195,803 | 70,311 | 36% | 12,173 | 6% | 101,427 | 52% |
| D | Nora Campos | 27TH AD | 181,967 | 65,128 | 36% | 53,604 | 29% | 55,072 | 30% |
| D | Ian Calderon | 57TH AD | 232,722 | 77,054 | 33% | 23,112 | 10% | 127,879 | 55% |
| D | Tom Daly | 69TH AD | 166,092 | 53,214 | 32% | 19,965 | 12% | 90,273 | 54% |
| D | John Perez | 53RD AD | 147,477 | 44,755 | 30% | 25,155 | 17% | 73,584 | 50% |
| D | Christina Garcia | 58TH AD | 222,090 | 65,669 | 30% | 26,535 | 12% | 122,487 | 55% |
| D | Jimmy Gomez | 51ST AD | 196,429 | 54,406 | 28% | 23,935 | 12% | 114,473 | 58% |
| D | Ed Chau | 49TH AD | 207,024 | 54,229 | 26% | 89,546 | 43% | 57,688 | 28% |