Entering the last week of Campaign 2014, I am posting my last weekly piece updating readers on the week’s latest campaign news. This is an abbreviated version of the Hot Sheet, which is regularly emailed to subscribers of the California Target Book.
Clinton to campaign in key House races: Some of the hottest House races in the nation are here in California and former President Bill Clinton is in California today to headline a rally for Rep. Ami Bera (CD7) and John Garamendi (CD3) at UC Davis and for Reps. Julia Brownley (CD26) and Raul Ruiz (CD36) and Redlands Mayor Pete Aguilar (CD31 Open Seat) at Oxnard College.
CD21 (R-Valadao) Polls Shows Valadao Leads by 5 points: This is a highly competitive district in the southwestern portion of the San Joaquin Valley. A poll taken for a local Fresno TV station by SurveyUSA from Oct. 15 through Oct. 20, show GOP Rep. David Valadao leading her Democratic opponent Amanda Renteria 47% to 42%, with 11% undecided. Compared to a SurveyUSA tracking poll released six weeks ago, Renteria has surged among women. Back then, she trailed Valadao among women by 14 points. Today, she leads among women by 12, and 26-point turn-around. Valadao had lead by 25 points among men, now leads by 22. Latino voters, who are the largest ethnic group in the district with 54 percent of registered voters, back Renteria 51% to 35%.
CD24 (D-Capps) Mitchum Poll Shows Close Race: Democratic Rep. Lois Capps represents this coastal district encompassing San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara counties. Her GOP opponent this year is Chris Mitchum, 70, the son of the late movie star Robert Mitchum. Though this district is not totally safe for a Democrat, few have been paying much attention to this race. Now, the Mitchum campaign has released a poll conducted Oct. 15-16 by Adam Probolsky, a Republican pollster based in Orange County, showing Mitchum with a slight 41.5% to 40.5% lead over Democratic Rep. Lois Capps. I can’t vouch on the poll’s accuracy, however the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) is making a last-minute purchase of $99,000 worth of radio ads in the Santa Barbara area in support of Capps or, more likely, attacking Mitchum.
Dueling TV Spots: For readers who do not reside in a competitive congressional district and therefore unable to view the highly informative TV ads being produced and paid for by either the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) or the Republican National Congressional Committee (NRCC) to persuade voters, here is a taste of what you are missing: DCCC Spot • NRCC Spot.