Political consultant Garry South usually has a pretty interesting take on things, and that especially goes for the 2010 governor’s race. South offered his opinions at the California Chamber of Commerce post election conference last week.
South has a candidate who may jump into the governor’s race—San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom. But South doesn’t think the other California big city mayor, Antonio Villaraigosa, makes the leap. His reasoning is timing. Villaraigosa runs for re-election in March. Even if he wins, the L.A. mayor is not sworn in until July. South can’t see Villaraigosa pledging fidelity to the Los Angeles voters right up to swearing-in day and suddenly announcing a run for governor. On top of whatever embarrassment that would bring, South points out Villaraigosa will only have eleven months to build up a campaign war chest before the primary. Not enough time, says South.
While South’s analysis is logical here, I’m not ready to buy his current speculation that, in the end, neither Jerry Brown nor Dianne Feinstein will make a gubernatorial run. But, he had another prediction that feels right. He thinks a woman besides Feinstein (assuming she does not run) will get into the Democratic primary. Women make up a majority of Democratic voters in California, and in light of the Democratic Party’s historic presidential primaries his feeling is a woman will make a bid. He is not sure which potential female candidate will take the plunge but he offered Congresswomen Loretta Sanchez, Jane Harman, and Jackie Speier as possibilities, with an edge to Speier.
His prediction on the Republican side, which also makes sense, is that a conservative will jump into the race to challenge the moderate Republicans who are often named as contenders for the post: Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner, Former Congressman Tom Campbell, and former eBay executive Meg Whitman. The theory floating in the political atmosphere is that enough activist Republicans might support the conservative while the other candidates split the vote allowing for the conservative candidate to grab the nomination. This will probably lure a conservative contender, South surmises.
As to his own candidate’s current high negative ratings brought on by his starring role in the Prop 8 commercials —"It’s gonna happen, whether you like it or not" — South thinks Newsom’s position doesn’t hurt him within the Democratic Party. As for the general election? South points out that there was an individual who recently ran for governor, had low approval ratings, was vilified by nurses, firefighters, and teachers, lost all measures he sponsored in the 2005 special election and won the governorship in a landslide one year later.