Most of the time, Yogi Berra is right. It’s not over ‘til it’s over. But when it comes to the May 19 special election in California, folks are behaving like it’s over.
The election campaign has been a small, relatively cheap one. The back-and-forth charges have been fairly civil. Given the condition of the state, one would expect a heated campaign. But the only real heat is being generated by fighting over what happens after the election. Schwarzenegger, Democratic legislative leaders, and their allies are predicting that their opponents, by defeating the special election measures, will be pushing the state over the cliff. The left is accusing the governor and legislative leaders of fear-mongering. The right is blasting at the left for planning tax increases.
So mark your calendars for May 20. That’s when the big campaign over the state budget begins. Assuming a defeat for 1A through 1E (and I’ve yet to encounter a political professional who thinks any of those five measures will pass), you’ll see an enormous fight over the victory. The left will demand tax increases—specifically, a tax passage from the legislature that passes by majority vote. Conservatives, who will call the election verdict a defeat for tax increases, will launch an all-out political assault on the left (their strange-bedfellow allies before the special election). If the legislature succeeds in passing (and winning the governor’s approval) for a majority-vote tax package, there will be a monster fight in court.
And then, of course, there are the supporters of 1A-1E, who are likely to see those measures go down on May 19. Strangely, however, this center-left to center-right coalition – which includes the governor, many Democratic lawmakers, business groups, law enforcement, and some labor unions – may be politically stronger after the election than before. If they can keep the coalition together.
This centrist coalition is in a position to exact retribution – and push through a tough budget plan – over the objections of left and right. How’s that? The coalition can target cuts at the health programs and state jobs that were defended by the 1A through 1E opponents on the left. When the left cries foul, Schwarzenegger and the centrists could argue: we didn’t want to make these cuts, but you left us with no choice by opposing our compromise measures. The centrist coalition, if it holds, also could force new tax increases and perhaps back a majority vote tax package. To protests on the right, the coalition could point out that conservatives have advanced no budget- balancing alternative. Since voters turned down two years of temporary taxes, revenues will have to come from somewhere else.
I’m not sure who wins. But the political fight will be ugly, and all-consuming.