What if Proposition 14 was already the law and all candidates in the June primary could receive the votes of any voter? At Datamar Surveys we decided to ask that question in relation to the governor’s race.
We asked 794 high propensity voters which gubernatorial candidate they would vote for in the June primary and offered the three major candidates, telling the respondents they could vote for anyone they chose.
The results: Meg Whitman 29.1%; Jerry Brown 25.1%; Steve Poizner 20.5%. Undecided was right in the mix at 25.4%.
There are a large number of Democrats and Liberals who are expressing a choice for Steve Poizner. We attribute this to two factors. First, Jerry Brown thus far appears to have employed a wait-and-see strategy and is content to let Meg Whitman and Steve Poizner battle for the Republican nomination. Second, we believe that Democrats and Liberals are expressing a sentiment not for any candidate in particular but against Meg Whitman.
This interpretation might give ammunition to those who argue voters could cause mischief in an open primary system. This suspicion is strengthened when you consider Poizner, who paints himself as the most conservative candidate in the race, captured 30% of self-described liberals. Poizner also captured 33% of those voters who claimed to be economic liberals while Poizner has run on a platform of budget cuts and across-the-board tax cuts.
Independents, which may turn out to be the key group in the general election in November are
splitting their vote among the three candidate choices with just over a quarter going to Meg
Whitman (25.7 percent), 15 percent going to Steve Poizner, and 20.7 percent going to Jerry
Brown.
The entire poll can be viewed here.