Author: Bill Watkins

Crossposted on newgeography Dennis Meyers is the Principal Economist at California’s Department of Finance. He has recently published two parts of what is promised to

Crossposted on newgeography Every now and then, some East Coast based publication sends a reporter out to California to see how the West Coast’s economy

Crossposted on New Geography There has been news and conversation  about economic inequality and economic growth lately, mostly because the former  is increasing steadily and

Cross posted on New Geography California has three major problems: persistent high unemployment, persistent deficits, and persistently volatile state revenues.  Unfortunately, the only one of

Crossposted on newgeography The No Child Left Behind Act became law in 2002. Among other things, it required standardized testing of students, beginning in 2003.

Cross-posted at NewGeography. The October 29, 2009 issue of Time Magazine had an article titled “Why California is America’s Future.”  I sure hope not.  California

Cross-posted at NewGeography.

On March 25th, the Bureau of Labor statistics released a report that showed that California jobs had increased by 96,000 in February.  The state’s cheerleaders jumped into action. Never mind that the state still has a 12.2 percent unemployment rate, and part of the decline from 12.4 percent is because just under 32,000 discouraged workers left California’s labor force in February. 

Unfortunately, the cheerleaders are likely to once again be disappointed.  It is unwise to build a case on one data point.  Data are volatile and subject to all sorts of technical issues.  For example, the estimate of California’s job growth is seasonally adjusted data and subject to revision.

Cross-posted at NewGeography.

I admit it. I had low expectations for Jerry Brown’s third term as governor. After seeing his budget proposal, I’m ready to reconsider my expectations. I think it is a great effort, and it deserves the support of all of us tired of seeing our state reduced to laughing stock.

Being an economist, I first went to the Economic Outlook section of the Proposed Budget Summary. This is where governors put in rosy expectations and forecasts, thus enabling a multitude of fiscal sins. I was shocked to find a realistic and sober economic analysis. In fact the U.S. and California GDP projections were lower than ours, and we are among the least optimistic forecasters in America. There is no smoke here. There are no mirrors. It is apparent to me that if Brown is to be surprised, he only wants good ones.

This may be the most honest forecast accompanying a proposed budget that Californian’s have seen in decades.

The realistic economic forecast leads, reasonably, to lower budget revenue assumptions, lower by billions of dollars. With more realistic revenue assumptions, Brown forecasts a larger budget problem than did his more easily deluded predecessor.

Cross-posted at NewGeography.

State Treasurer Bill Lockyer and economist Stephen Levy published a piece in the Los Angeles Times that argues that California doesn’t really have any fundamental problems. In their piece, Lockyer and Levy don their rose-colored glasses and give us the same tired old excuses, twisted logic, and factual inaccuracies.

I’ll begin with the factual inaccuracies:

Lockyer and Levy claim that California is the state with the youngest population. That is just incorrect. The U.S. Census website has a map. California is not even the same color as that used to identify the lowest-aged states.