Prop 13 and a Constitutional Convention
The following are my comments before the “Getting to Reform” conference held in Sacramento this week:
I have been asked if Proposition 13 should be taken “off the table” if and when a constitutional convention is called. My answer is: Absolutely not.
How can it be taken off the table when it is the central piece of the whole fiscal discussion? How many times in this conference was Proposition 13 mentioned as part of the mix. Many believe it must be reformed. How can you have a constitutional convention and simply ignore Proposition 13?
However, I would suggest that those who want to include Proposition 13 in a constitutional convention do so at their own risk. Proposition 13 did something revolutionary. For the first time in history, it gave certainty in taxation to the taxpayer instead of the tax collector. Why would the people ever surrender that certainty?
California Is Governable. Really!
Here’s something you don’t hear everyday: No question about it, California is governable.
So said Bill Hauck, president of the California Business Roundtable, relaying his own views to the “Getting to Reform” conference hosted by Cal State Sacramento, UC Berkeley and Stanford in Sacramento yesterday. Hauck’s been through these reform efforts many times before. He chaired the state’s Constitution Revision Commission, was co-chair of the California Performance Review Commission, and recently was a member of the Commission on the 21st Century Economy. Inside the capitol building, Hauck served as deputy chief of staff to a governor, and chief of staff to two Assembly speakers.
Many have claimed that California’s size, diversity, and political structure make it impossible to govern. Hauck is convinced that the state can be governed with strong leadership and a change in priorities.
Poll Indicates Budget Reforms Unlikely For Now
Here’s a quick read from a report on the Field Poll results dealing with budget reform released today: The status quo seems safe for now.
Yes, a majority of respondents to the poll said they supported fundamental changes to the state constitution by way of a constitutional convention. But, any political consultant worth his or her salt will tell you that a 51% affirmative result is not a ringing endorsement. Once details of the changes are made public that 51% undoubtedly will slip under majority rather quickly.
In fact, some of the most talked about budget related changes the poll respondents batted down. Not surprisingly, reducing the two-thirds vote to a simple majority to raise taxes was crushed, 27% Yes, 69% No. Even the much ballyhooed idea to pass the state budget by a simple majority vote instead of a two-thirds vote couldn’t gain a majority in this poll: 43% Yes, 52% No.
No Sympathy for State Union on Columbus Day
It’s Columbus Day morning and members of the SEIU Local 1000 have threatened not to come to work today. Whether they do or not, the mere threat is another poke in the eye of the typical California private sector worker, whether a private union member or not.
The public union members seem to have placed themselves above other workers in demands that they cannot be furloughed or laid off during a recession that has seen California unemployment reach more than 12%. There are rallies even today at Cal State Universities protesting public cuts while private workers suffer silently or scramble for new work.
Then of course there is the pension debacle. State and local governments are headed toward bankruptcy if the pension promises demanded by the public sector workers are not reformed. Imagine how the private sector worker feels, many of whom don’t have a pension or have difficulty contributing to one, when they will have to pay out of their own pockets to cover comfortable or even outrageous pensions for public workers who retire relatively early.
“What Ails California” and “Getting to Reform”: Two Conferences
Reforming California’s dysfunctional government has become a boom industry. The legislature, foundations, activists, and reformers of all stripes are trying to find the golden key to set California straight. Now academic institutions are offering symposiums to study the problem and perhaps move toward solutions.
Two conferences are set in the coming weeks. Both are free to the public. Academics will join interest group leaders and policymakers to explore the state of the state. (I’ll be a panelist at both events.)
On Wednesday, October 14 the conference at the Sacramento Convention Center is titled: Getting to Reform: Avenues to Constitutional Change in California. Sponsored by UC Berkeley’s Robert T. Matsui Center for Politics & Public Service; Center for California Studies at Cal State Sacramento; and Stanford’s Bill Lane Center for the Study of the American West, the one-day conference will examine the advantages and drawbacks of alternative paths to constitutional change, including a look at a potential constitutional convention. See the conference agenda here.
They’re Off!
Yes siree, ladies and gentleman, the horse race for governor has begun. The horses are jockeying for position, mud flying, as they hurtle down the straightaway.
There’s Meg Whitman splattered over and over again with her voting record. She’s trying to avoid some more mud as she moves to the outside, hollering that she did so vote … once or twice.
Steve Poizner is moving to the right to get away from a smash-up in the middle of the track. But he can’t duck the glob of donations he made to Al Gore, or was that his stable mate. We can’t quite tell from here, but it seems the mud is sticking.
And, there’s the old war horse, Jerry Brown, biding his time along the rail. Brown still has mud stains splattered on his shirt from forty years of going around the track. And, there appears to be a new stain. Did he actually appear at a fundraiser for a hard core Republican DA in San Bernadino County? Wow! That won’t wash out so easily. Like trying to explain to your wife that lipstick on the collar.
An Initiative War is Looming
Powerful interests are making last minute decisions on which initiatives to put forward to achieve their goals. At the same time they are practicing a bit of brinkmanship, determining which measures their opponents truly back, while deciding which ones their side will file if opponents put up an initiative they abhor.
Call it MAD – a case of Mutually Assured Destruction. The old Cold War term has been defined as a doctrine that “assumes that each side has enough nuclear weaponry to destroy the other side and that either side, if attacked for any reason by the other, would retaliate with equal or greater force.”
Over the next three weeks or so, initiatives will be filed in hopes of qualifying for the November 2010 ballot. Some initiatives would prompt counter moves setting off a true initiative war. There are, of course, a number of initiatives that have already emerged from the Attorney General’s Office but we’re looking for the measures that expect to receive big money support.
Soda Tax: It’s About the Revenue
The push is on for a soda tax. Supporters say it’s a way to improve health problems, and oh, by the way, you could close those messy government budget gaps. Well, which is it? If raising taxes on sugary drinks is supposed to cut down on the use of those products why expect a declining revenue source to deal with a budget problem?
This is the same argument often made to support tobacco tax increases. While raising taxes would cut consumption that means that any tax revenue attached to a product would likely fall over time. Such taxes will not be the answer to solving the budget crisis.
Yet, according to a Los Angeles Times article, the Center for Science in the Public Interest, said billions of dollars can be raised to offset budget problems with a soda tax increase. Yale University has a calculator on a website to determine how much a state or city could raise with a tax on sugary drinks.
Notes from the California Target Book Conference
The California Target Book, published by Fox and Hounds Daily contributor Allan Hoffenblum, tracks the state’s political races. The Target Book sponsored a conference yesterday to peer into the crystal ball at the 2010 races; the attitude of California voters; and a look at the dysfunction of California governance. Some notes jotted down at the conference:
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Democratic Pollster David Binder says its wrong to think voters are against all taxes. They are opposed to taxes on themselves but are willing to approve taxes on corporations and businesses. But, Binder admits, a counter argument that raising taxes on business could affect jobs in the state has some effect.
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Binder says Decline to State voters (DTS) are becoming disenchanted with the Republican Party. DTS voters make up 20% of the electorate, and as Republican pollster, Steve Kinney, commented, the independents decide elections.
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State Treasurer Bill Lockyer, in trying to explain the discord in the legislature, said he believes Republicans who serve in the legislature have changed since his day. They are less pragmatic.
The Green Governor – Environment and Money
Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger liked what he saw and heard from the tax commission when commissioners handed over their report to him. He gave the proposal a thumbs up and said he’d sign the plan into law immediately if he could. However, those thumbs were way up and his energy was much higher when he addressed the gathering at the Governors’ Climate Summit 2 in Los Angeles, yesterday,
To be sure, there were stark differences in the two events. At the climate summit the governor was playing to an admiring audience of world and environmental leaders while at the press conference he was talking to a bunch of grumpy reporters who he sees on a regular basis.
The environmental extravaganza plays into his grassroots stirring of a “Green Revolution”, as he called it, for which he has received international acclaim. With the tax proposal he faces an unruly legislature, which will demand changes and then most likely sink the whole proposal. He’s been down that rocky road too many times before to think its any fun.