Redistricting Could Be Aimed at Lungren
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee last week tagged Rep. Dan Lungren as one of its prime targets in November, but the former GOP candidate for governor probably has more to fear from the state Legislature than from the voters in the Third Congressional District.
If Lungren does survive the election, look for the Democrat-controlled Legislature to paint a bulls-eye on his back in the redistricting that will follow this year’s census, with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi looking on approvingly.
Complaints – along with outright threats – from Pelosi and other California congressional leaders convinced backers of the Prop. 11 redistricting reform measure in 2008 to leave the congressional seats out of the initiative.
That means that while a pointedly non-political citizens’ commission will draw the new district lines for state legislators, it’s back to the same partisan drawing board when it comes to Congress.
Time for Brown to Take a Stand on the Budget
Let’s imagine, for a moment, that the major candidates for governor were asked to answer a single question: How would you deal with California’s budget problems?
Republican Steve Poizner: “Cut taxes and freeze spending.”
Republican Meg Whitman: “Rein in state spending and fire 40,000 government workers.”
Democrat Jerry Brown: “Well, since I’m not an official candidate for governor at this point …”
That answer’s getting old. There’s no one in the state, including the guy sitting in the attorney general’s office in Oakland, who isn’t convinced that Jerry Brown is running for governor.
Sure, the campaign account in the secretary of state’s office is called “Brown for Governor 2010 Exploratory Committee,” but any “exploratory” questions about a run for governor were answered long before Brown set up that committee last September. He told KGO radio in San Francisco Thursday that he has about $12.5 million in the bank for the race, which is a mighty official sounding pile of cash.
LAO Report Deepens Budget Woes
Bad as California’s budget numbers are, they’re likely to get worse.
Along with the continuing commotion over whether California will get the $6.9 billion it needs from the federal government to help close the budget deficit (Note to gamblers: take the under, the way under), state Legislative Analyst Mac Taylor warned Tuesday that Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger might have been a teensy bit optimistic when his budget folk estimated next year’s revenues. About $3.1 billion optimistic, that is.
In Taylor’s words, the governor’s budget is realistic, but “there’s a downside risk on revenues.” Taylor’s main concern is that the governor’s financial team is counting on a faster, more robust economic recovery than he sees as likely.
It’s important to remember that both Taylor and the governor are dealing with best guess estimates of what the upcoming year will bring and there’s a lot of “potato/po-tah-to” arguing that goes on among the green-eyeshade crowd.
Campbell MIA in State Budget Debate
If you’re looking for a clue about whether Republican Tom Campbell is giving up his long-shot run for governor to switch to the Senate race, it may be what Sherlock Holmes called “the dog that didn’t bark.”
It’s been four days since Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger released his new budget and Campbell has been MIA, with nary a speech, blog post or white board presentation. That’s not like the economics professor who takes pride in being a government finance geek.
Campbell hasn’t said a word about any change in plans, but there’s lots of evidence out there for a political CSI team.
On Campbell’s campaign web site, you’ll find plenty on “Tom Campbell in the News,” but not a single piece speculating about the possible political switcheroo. It’s not that they’re hard to find, since you can see them here, here and here, just for starters.
Budget Smoke Arrives Early
Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has figured out a way to jumpstart the budget debate by pumping out the fiscal smoke and setting up the financial mirrors at the beginning of the process instead of at the end.
As state law requires, the governor produced a balanced budget last Friday. But to make those numbers work, Schwarzenegger and his financial team were forced to work more magic than the faculty of Hogwarts School.
Let’s take the big stuff first. After the governor added in some new revenue and subtracted some cuts, the budget was still out of balance.
But if you just figure that the federal government owes the state some $6.9 billion –and will actually pay it – then abracadabra, the budget’s in balance.
Governor’s Speech More Hope than Realism
Talk, even when it comes to California’s budget, is cheap. Making good on that talk, however, is a great deal pricier, not to mention a whole lot more politically problematic.
When Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger gave his final State of the State address Wednesday morning, he had a whole list of things he wants to add to California’s already rickety budget, including a $500 million jobs program and another $200 million or so for homebuyer credits.
Although the governor said that the words were bitter in his mouth, he admitted "we face additional cuts … we know the pain it entails. I mean, what can we say at this point except the truth, that we have no choice?"
Yet Schwarzenegger spent more time talking about what wasn’t going to get cut than suggesting any places where the budget ax would fall. Education funding would be protected, he said, and "we can no longer afford to cut higher education."
Donor State Problem Not Easy to Solve
When Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger makes his angry “donor state” argument, as he has regularly since 2003, it sounds both outrageous and easy to fix:
1. California only gets 78-cents back for every dollar state taxpayers send to Washington.
2. The feds should return the rest of our money. Right now.
As the Fox of this blog pointed out Tuesday, the governor is expected to argue in his State of the State address this morning that it’s past time for Washington to play fair with California. The budget he will unveil Friday is expected to use a chunk of new federal dollars to help balance the state’s books.
Put aside for a minute the California-first, “I got mine, Jack” attitude behind Schwarzenegger’s demand and forget all that “E Pluribus Unum,” “one nation, indivisible” stuff you learned in high school civics.
Jobless Republicans look to Congressional Race
There’s no such thing as an ex-politician, as the approaching contest for a Central Valley congressional seat proves.
When GOP Rep. George Radanovich announced last month that he would be leaving Congress after eight terms to spend more time with his ailing wife, he endorsed state Sen. Jeff Denham of Atwater as his chosen successor.
“Jeff and I share over 100,000 constituents and I have witnessed firsthand the work he has done for our special part of California,” Radanovich said in a statement. “Given his proven record as a candidate and elected official, I will do everything in my power to help him win in June and November of next year.”
Not so fast. Dick Pombo, who lost his Tracy-area congressional seat to Democrat Jerry McNerney in 2006, is heading south for a comeback.
A Look Back for the Governor
It all seemed so simple in 2004, when Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger gave his first “State of the State” address.
“The state of our state will soon be strong because our people and our purpose are strong,” Schwarzenegger told a joint session of the Legislature. “We have a new spirit, a new confidence. We have a new common cause in restoring California to greatness.”
The governor had plenty of reasons to be happy. Three months after ousting Democratic Gov. Gray Davis in an unprecedented recall election, his popularity was high and 71 percent of Californians were confident he’d do what was right for the state.
Fast forward six years. Now, as then, the governor takes pride in being the ultimate optimist, someone who’s always ready to see a “fantastic” future in the headlights, regardless of how ugly things look in the rearview mirror.
Fiorina Outraged that Boxer Votes Democratic
This just in from the Fiorina campaign: Barbara Boxer is a Democrat.
Not only that, she’s an unabashed Democrat, who was “prioritizing her own bitter partisan politics” when she voted over the weekend to support the health-care bill wending its way through the Senate.
You might remember that health care bill. You know, the one backed by Democratic President Barack Obama that every single Democrat in the Senate voted for.
Carly Fiorina, who’s looking to win the June GOP primary and challenge Boxer in November, wrote in an email to supporters Tuesday that “with her 1 a.m. vote, Barbara Boxer proved yet again that her loyalties lie with the special interests, NOT with the people of California she was elected to serve.”
Now it’s mighty courageous – a word that’s not always a compliment in politico-speak – to mount a political assault on a three-term Democratic senator for supporting a Democratic bill backed by a Democratic president in a state that typically votes, well, Democratic.