How Might the Supreme Court ACA Case Affect California?
The Supreme Court heard oral arguments today on California v. Texas, another challenge to the Affordable Care Act (ACA). At issue is whether the ACA’s individual mandate—which requires most Americans to have health insurance or pay a tax penalty—is constitutional now that the 2017 tax bill has reduced the penalty to zero, and whether this, […]
In LA, Defunding the Police Experiment Begins
Last week the Los Angeles Police Department laid out plans to deal with a smaller budget forced on the LAPD in part by a $150 million cut as a result of the police reform movement. The risks of changes in policing strategies will be measured against citizens’ safety. While it’s too early to judge the […]
Lessons for Pollsters in the Election
When it comes to elections, just like sports, the spread does matter. Democratic strategist James Carville said the day before Election Day on MSNBC that “we’re going to know the winner of this election by 10 tomorrow night.” The big surprise on Tuesday was that the race was much more competitive than we were led […]
California and Its Contradictions
California remains deep blue, but the good news from this week’s elections is that it has not yet achieved complete ballot-box unanimity. California voters appear to have turned two or three house seats red, and statewide voters rejected some of the most extreme progressive proposals governing contract workers, affirmative action, expansion of rent control, and […]
How long will Newsom have one-man rule?
California has been a one-party state for the last decade, with Democratic governors and supermajorities in both legislative houses doing pretty much as they pleased without paying any attention to the relative handful of Republican legislators. However, one-party rule gave way to one-man rule eight months ago when Gov. Gavin Newsom declared an emergency due […]
Taxing Big Tech?
If the Proposition 15 commercial property tax increase remains behind and ultimately is rejected when all votes have been tabulated, pro-taxers in the legislature will look for other avenues to increase revenue. One such approach might be taxing big tech, which has weathered the pandemic storm better than most industries. Don’t be surprised if other […]
Despite obituaries being drafted “polling” is not dead.
Many national pollsters and research organizations are bound to be thrown under the Biden Bus or hit by the Trump Train – and some for good reasons. There’s still much we don’t know, so it’s too soon for a deep dive on better and worse methodologies, though worth mentioning, predictions made in California seem to […]
NY Times Says CA “Sorely Needs Revenue.” An Analysis
A recent article in the New York Times about election results in California included the following sentence (underline added by me): “A measure that would have raised taxes on commercial landlords to raise billions for a state that sorely needs revenue also seemed on track for defeat.” The reporters did not provide support for their […]
Home State Advantage: What a Vice President Kamala Harris means for California
Goodbye, state of resistance. Hello, state of influence. California’s status has shifted dramatically with the election of Joe Biden as the next president. The reasons are both political — deep blue California will have more inroads to a White House controlled by Democrats — and personal: For just the second time in American history, a […]
California Legislature Rebuked by Voters
Measured against a number of statewide ballot propositions, the California legislature apparently has a different vision on governing the state than the people they serve. Importantly, two measures that challenged legislative actions intended to lead policy change across the nation were upended by voters. A couple of ballot questions placed on the ballot by the […]