Author: Allan Hoffenblum

How did little-known Republican Craig Huey outpoll
Democratic Secretary of State Debra Bowen in last week’s Special Election in
CD36?

Sixteen candidates qualified for that special election
ballot: five Democrats, six Republicans and five affiliated with another party
or no party at all.

The district, stretching from Venice to the Los Angeles
Harbor community of San Pedro, is safely Democratic, with Democrats outnumbering
Republicans 45% – 27%, with 22% being independent.

Two heavyweight Democrats entered the race: Los Angeles
Councilmember Janice Hahn of San Pedro, and Secretary of State Debra Bowen, of
Venice, who had previously represented much of the district as a state senator
and assemblymember.

In August 2009, I wrote a column for Fox & Hounds entitled
"Reach out, Republicans, or lose!"

In that article, I wrote that California Republicans can
yell and scream all they want on the issues of taxes, socialize medicine, and
corporate bailouts. But unless the California Republican Party is able to
persuade significant numbers of Latinos, Asians and other people of color to
register in their party and/or vote for their candidates, it will not elect a governor or
any statewide official in 2010 and could very well lose additional seats in
congress and the state legislature.

Well, that wasn’t Chicken Little talking and that is exactly
what happened.

If Republican leaders and elected officials – the few that
are left – don’t quickly wake up, 2012 could very well see the sky again fall
on the California Republican Party.

We all know the facts. 

In November 2008, Barack Obama outpolled John McCain in 12
of 29 assembly seats that are currently held by a Republican.

At the early beginning of this election cycle – with Obama’s
popularity in this state above 60 percent – I predicted that the Democratic
Assembly leadership would make a serious effort to increase their numbers and
maybe be able to pick up the three seats needed for a super two-thirds
majority.

November 2010, I predicted, was going to be one of the most
competitive election cycles in the battle for assembly seats than this state
has seen in more than a decade.

Proposition 14, if passed by the voters in the June Primary, will scratch the current method we elect our legislators by allowing the two top vote-getters – regardless of party – to run against each other in a November runoff election.

In some heavily Democratic districts and heavily Republican districts, this could lead to two candidates of the same party to run against each other in November.

Opponents of Prop. 14 have made the argument that this would "narrow voter choice" by prohibiting the state’s smaller third-parties (i.e. Green, Peace & Freedom, American Independent and Libertarian) from appearing on the November General Election ballot.

It’s much
too early to start picking winners and losers for next November.  In many of the potential targeted races
for congress and the state legislature, we won’t know until after the June 8
Primary who the Party nominees will be.

So, let’s
first talk about what we do know.

In November
2008, Barack Obama outpolled John McCain in 8 of 19 congressional districts, 5
of 15 state senate seats, and 12 of 29 assembly seats that are currently held
by a Republican.

There is not
a single Democratic-held congressional or state legislative district up for
election this year that John McCain carried in 2008.

For
Republicans to pick up any seats in November, they must defeat a Democrat
running in a seat won by Obama.

If the
latest Rasmussen poll taken in mid-May is to be believed, Obama’s current
approval rating in California stands at 61% – the same percentage Obama carried
this state in 2008.

(Read part 1 here)

In California, we no longer have an Election Day, but an Election Month.  And that month begins today, May 10, the first day that county election officials we be mailing June 8 Primary Election ballots to the more than 5.8 million registered voters who have signed up as permanent vote-by-mail voters.  And these voters will be able to cast that ballot by return mail anytime between now and June 8.

Last week I posted an article on incumbent challenges, but most of the action in this Primary Election will be in the two congressional districts, 10 even-number state senate districts and 29 assembly districts – total of 41 – that are OPEN SEATS – an open seat being districts that the incumbent is not seeking re-election due to term limits, running for another office, or retiring.  Because of gerrymandering, winning the Primary for the vast majority of these candidates is tantamount to winning the seat in November.

A total of 551 candidates are running in the June 8 Primary Election for congress or the state legislature.

Two hundred thirteen (51 incumbents) are running in one of the 53
congressional districts; 275 (51 incumbents) are running in one of the
80 assembly districts; and 63 (10 incumbents) are running in one of the
20 even-numbered state senate districts up for election this year.

Let me first congratulate Central Valley Republican Congressmen Devin Nunes (CD21) and Kevin McCarthy (CD22), along with Los Angeles Democratic Assembly Members John Pérez – Speaker of the Assembly – and Mike Davis on their re-election this year.  The four are unopposed in both the June Primary and November General Election.

Last April, I posted an article for Fox and Hounds noting the plummeting Republican registration in California, noting that not only was the statewide Republican registration of 31.1% a historic low, but for the first time there was not a single congressional, state senate or assembly district that had a majority Republican registration.

Needless to say, most Republican activists in this state at the time were in a rather funky mood.
Now, nearly a year later, President Barack Obama’s approval ratings have dropped considerably, a Republican won a U.S. Senate seat in very blue Massachusetts to succeed the late Ted Kennedy, and “tea baggers” along with their spiritual leader, former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, have aroused passions among conservative activists throughout the nation, as well as California, that we have not seen in more than a decade.

Conservative passion may be on the rise, but according to a report recently released by the Secretary of State’s office, Republican registration continues to plummet, with statewide GOP registration falling below 31% to 30.8, while both Democratic and Decline to State (independent) registration slightly increased.

More importantly, Republican registration has continued to decrease in legislative districts that are expected to be target races this year.

The Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) recently
released a voter survey measuring voter attitudes in California on various
issues, candidates and incumbents.

In the GOP Primary race for governor, former e-Bay executive
Meg Whitman continues to show a significant lead over her two GOP rivals, Tom
Campbell and Steve Poizner: Whiteman 32%, Campbell 19%, Poizner 8%, someone
else 4% and undecided 44%.

Attorney General Jerry Brown continues to leads all three
Republican candidates, though falling short of a majority support in
hypothetical November election matchups.

Early polls are interesting, but are not always accurate
indicators as to who will win come election time.  Ask supporters of Hillary Clinton and Richard Riordan on
that point.