Author: Allan Hoffenblum

Based on the e-mails, phone calls and other discussions I have had with my fellow Republicans throughout California, I can attest to the fact that GOP activists are pumped as never before following last week’s National Convention; at least since 1980.

The reason, as anyone who has watched TV or read a newspaper the last few days knows, is Gov. Sarah Palin.

Now, Palin or no Palin, no one but the must enthusiastic Republican partisan believes that McCain will carry California come November. This remains a “blue” state.

But if you are Tom McClintock running in CD4, or Dean Andal running in CD11, or Jack Sieglock running in AD10, or Bill Berryhill running in AD26, you are very thankful to John McCain’s bold selection of Gov. Sarah Palin to be his running mate.

This is because the above GOP candidates are running in races currently targeted by Democrats that are located in the “red” portions of California, districts that George Bush handily carried over Kerry in 2004.

I have previously posted two articles on this site discussing the odds of the Democratic Party being able to achieve a veto-proof “supermajority” in the Senate or Assembly.

This would require the Democrats to gain two new seats in the Senate and six new seats in the Assembly.

Due to the Democrats’ failed attempt at recalling GOP Senator Jeff Denham last June, and no Democrat filing to run against GOP Senator Abel Maldonado – allowing him to run unopposed in November – the chances of Senate Democrats gaining two seats are all but nil.

On the Assembly side, the California Target Book, a non-partisan publication that analyses and handicaps legislative races in this state (which I publish), is tracking six assembly districts that are currently being held by a Republican that are believed to be at the top of the Democratic Target List.

The six districts are: AD’s 10, 15, 26, 37, 78 and 80.

Back in 2001, the Democratic and Republican leadership forged a bi-partisan gerrymander of the district lines for congress and both houses of the state legislature. Gerrymandering is the drawing of district lines in such a way that the districts become so heavily Democratic or Republican that winning the primary election is tantamount to winning in November, making the November general election meaningless in all but a small handful of districts.

The congressional line drawers particularly did such a skillful job that almost all incumbent members of congress who sought re-election since 2002 have won with majorities exceeding 60 percent of the votes cast.

But 2006 saw some chinks in the armor with Democrat Jerry McNerney defeating incumbent GOP Congressman Richard Pombo (CD11) and the near upset win by Democrat Charlie Brown over GOP Congressman John Doolittle (CD4).

McNerney is facing former GOP Assembly Member/BOE Member Dean Andal this year, in what is expected to be one of the hardest fought congressional races in the nation.

How is our representative democracy working in California?

In a word, dismally.

The June 3rd primary election selected party nominees for congress and the state legislature.

While the number of registered voters in California continues to increase — 16,123,970 as of last May – fewer and fewer participated in the primary election, reaching an historic low this election cycle, with less than 29 percent of California voters going to the polls.

The consequences of this are the ridiculously low number of votes that the top vote-getters received while winning their primary nomination.

In a hard-fought Democratic primary election in the 23rd Senate District, a district that stretches from Fairfax Boulevard in Los Angeles to downtown Oxnard in Ventura County, former Assembly Member Fran Pavley defeated her opponent, Assembly Member Lloyd Levine with 42,719 votes, which was 66 percent of the votes cast.

That 66 percent number looks impressive, but there are 238,682 registered Democrats in that senate district, meaning Pavley won with only 19 percent of the district’s registered Democrats.

There was an election in California last night, and twenty-two percent of California’s voters bothered to turn out.  There may be a few absentee and provisional ballots out there yet to be counted and the turnout percentage may inch up a bit, but not by much.

Regardless of turnout, elections have consequences and there were some big winners and losers last night.

One of the big winners was state Senator Jeff Denham, who easily beat back the recall election with 76 percent of the district voters voting NO on the recall.

Another winner was state Senator Tom McClintock, who carpetbagged from Ventura County to run in the 4th Congressional District located northeast of Sacramento.  McClintock handily defeated former Congressman Doug Ose, 54 percent to 39 percent.  In San Diego County Duncan Hunter, the son of the retiring incumbent congressman of the same name, trounced his three Primary opponents by receiving 73 percent of the vote.

In the November 7, 2000 General Election, California voters, by a margin of 60 percent to 40 percent, passed Proposition 34, which placed limits on the amount an individual, corporation, labor union or political committee can contribute to a candidate for the state legislature … currently $3,600, or double that if the contribution comes from what is called a "small contributor committee."

Prior to the passage of Proposition 34, there were no limits on the amount that any individual or interest group could give to a candidate, and it was not uncommon for wealthy individuals and others who had an interest in who was elected to the state legislature to, in fact, give large sums of money directly to a political candidate they favored.

Passage of Proposition 34, supporters claimed, would put a stop to this and thus significantly reduce the influence that powerful special interest groups and wealthy donors have on state legislative races.

How has it worked?

Nothing gives the state legislature’s Democratic leadership — and the Republican governor — more headaches than the constitutional requirement for a two-thirds vote to pass a state budget or any tax increases.

To achieve a two-thirds vote requires the unanimous support of the Democratic members of both houses plus two additional Republican votes on the senate side and six additional Republican votes on the assembly side.

The budget battle in the state Senate last year so infuriated Senate Pro Tem Don Perata that he spent over $1 million to qualify and fund a June 3rd recall campaign against Republican Senator Jeff Denham.

But, for whatever reason, Perata abruptly announced last week that he is abandoning any further funding of that effort, making it highly unlikely that the Denham recall will be successful.