Rep. Ellen Tauscher’s appointment by the Obama-Clinton Administration has sure ignited the political talkers. Open seats and special elections bring out the most qualified candidates, the least viable, and sometimes nobody at all.
The sweepstakes could be really intriguing or completely dull in this district which is really not much like the one Bill Baker held in the mid-1990s – the new “10th” is yet another poster child for redistricting reform.
As a resident of this district, I have to admit, it crossed my mind – for about 5 seconds. Let me be the first to raise my hand and say I’m not running. It took me about seven minutes to look at the numbers and rule myself out as a candidate. In the last four days, I’ve gotten a myriad of calls from my friends from Capitol Hill, so I started to evaluate others who might be better positioned to run in this congressional seat where Democrats dominate by 18-points of registration over Republicans.
Yes, it’s a GOP long-shot but special elections sometimes yield unconventional results.
Some believe this is a “woman’s seat” so the GOP should run a woman. That’s rubbish.
It’s no secret that I’m a proponent of women getting involved in public policy, but I have to believe that area Democrats wouldn’t have rallied around State Senator Mark DeSaulnier so quickly if they saw gender as an overwhelming factor. Some whisper that Emily’s List is trying to recruit Assemblywoman Joan Buchanan to keep a woman in the 10th District. She hasn’t said “no” yet.
GOP female funding sources are also hunting, but it’s unlikely that even women as savvy as Fairfield Councilwoman Catherine Moy or Moraga’s former Councilwoman Rochelle Bird would stand up to the funding machine being set up right now for DeSaulnier. And remember, if DeSaulnier wins, Buchanan stands a strong chance for his senate seat.
Others taking a look on the Democrat side are former Assemblyman Joe Canciamilla, Lafayette Mayor Dan Talan, former PG&E Executive Dan Richard, and former political news editor Ariel Hampton. Bobby Shriver, the Governor’s brother in law, said “no”.
Possible GOP candidates include Contra Costa Sheriff Warren Rupf, former San Francisco 49er Brent Jones, and Nick Gerber who ran last time against Tauscher and received 31% of the vote. CRP Vice Chairman Tom DelBeccaro is also evaluating his chances and it’s rumored that KTVU newsman Brian Banmiller is as well.
I asked popular Comcast “Newsmakers” anchor and author Mark Curtis this weekend. He passed (but I’d encourage candidates to engage his talents as a media trainer).
Other municipal officials who may eye the seat include Concord City Councilman Mark Peterson, former Antioch councilman Arne Simonsen and school board member Gary Agopian. With his federal experience, former State Senator Dick Rainey may even blink (and then there’s wife Sue who sits on the city council). All municipal officials have a voting base but running district-wide is a very different ballgame so any and all of these fine city officials would face major challenges in parts of the district where they aren’t known.
A good portion of Assembly District 15 is in the 10th Congressional District and it probably hasn’t escaped most political junkies’ notice that both Robert Rao and Scott Kamena (R’s-Livermore) who ran in the Assembly District 15 primary are also district residents. While Contra Costa is the dominant county, someone like Rao could come in with some significant cash and change the playing field.
Several very prominent businessmen in the district have played major roles on the national and state level and could be strong at fundraising. Among them, Herman Rowland, the Chairman of Jelly Belly Candy Company has the most popular business in Fairfield (or Northern CA for that matter) and resides in Lafayette. Rick Cronk who heads the Boy Scouts of America might also be someone to talk with – he founded Dreyer’s Ice Cream and is still very involved in the community.
Here’s my advice as a former 15-year veteran of Capitol Hill and Washington, D.C to those still thinking of a run –
The cherry blossoms are most beautiful and fragrant around the Capitol Mall this time of year. Springtime makes people fall in love with Washington. We call it “Potomac Fever” and it is contagious. But think with your head, not your heart. If you can’t bring to the table significant name ID or funding, you probably need to back off and follow the candidate most likely to succeed.
Which brings me to my next thought – I wonder what Captain “Sully” Sullenberger is doing right now?