Last April, I posted an article for Fox and Hounds noting the plummeting Republican registration in California, noting that not only was the statewide Republican registration of 31.1% a historic low, but for the first time there was not a single congressional, state senate or assembly district that had a majority Republican registration.
Needless to say, most Republican activists in this state at the time were in a rather funky mood.
Now, nearly a year later, President Barack Obama’s approval ratings have dropped considerably, a Republican won a U.S. Senate seat in very blue Massachusetts to succeed the late Ted Kennedy, and “tea baggers” along with their spiritual leader, former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, have aroused passions among conservative activists throughout the nation, as well as California, that we have not seen in more than a decade.
Conservative passion may be on the rise, but according to a report recently released by the Secretary of State’s office, Republican registration continues to plummet, with statewide GOP registration falling below 31% to 30.8, while both Democratic and Decline to State (independent) registration slightly increased.
More importantly, Republican registration has continued to decrease in legislative districts that are expected to be target races this year.
In the 3rd Congressional District, where incumbent Dan Lungren will face a tough reelection battle against a well-funded opponent, GOP registration dropped from 40% to 39%. The same is true in the 11th Congressional District, were Republican are hoping to defeat incumbent Democrat Jerry McNerney.
The 12th Senate District, being vacated by Republican Jeff Denham due to term limits, is expected to be the top senate target this year. During this past year alone, Democrats have gone from a 48% – 33% registration advantage to it now having a 49% – 32% registration advantage. When Denham was reelect to this seat in 2006, GOP registration stood at 37%.
The 5th Assembly District, being vacated by Republican Roger Niello due to term limits, is expected to be a top assembly target this year. Since last February, the district has gone from Republicans having a slight 39% – 38% registration advantage to Democrats now having a 39% – 38% registration advantage. When this district was drawn in 2001, Republicans had a 44% – 38% advantage.
So why does GOP registration continue to drop?
The registration growth in this state continues to include significant numbers of Latinos, and they are neither registering nor voting Republican.
What about those tea baggers who excite so many of my Republican friends?
Former Colorado Congressman Tom Tancredo, the opening speaker at the recent Tea Party convention in Nashville, said, “People who could not even spell the word ‘vote,’ or say it in English, put a committed socialist ideologue in the White House. His name is Barack Hussein Obama.”
That’s not the type of rhetoric to appeal to a broader group of people, particularly Americans who identify themselves as Latino.