Problems With The L.A. Times/USC Poll
There
appear to be serious methodology problems with the Los Angeles Times/USC
poll released over the weekend that show Jerry Brown beating Meg
Whitman 49 to 44 percent. This is a much larger Brown lead than other
contemporary polls, such as Field that shows the race tied, and Survey
USA that gives Brown a three point lead.
The major problem seems to be in the way the L. A. Times/USC
measures likely voters and party preference. For one thing, the poll
shows Brown doing better among likely voters than the total electorate.
If we know one thing about this election it is that the turnout will
have a higher Republican tilt than the overall electorate. In the
primary, with 33 percent overall turnout, 44 percent of Republicans
went to the polls while only 32 percent of Democrats. The upshot was
that in actual votes cast, the Republican turnout was practically equal
to the Democratic turnout. This is partially explained by hot contests
on the GOP side, nevertheless it is dramatic turnaround from 2008 when
Democratic turnout far exceeded GOP turnout.
The 2008 general election is a good place to start.
According to the California Exit Poll conducted by Edison Media
Research and Mitofsky International, the 2008 electorate self
identified as 42 percent Democratic, 30 percent Republican and 28
percent independent/other. That turnout model produced a landslide
victory for President Obama in California in 2008.
Job Killer Bill Is Back Door Approach to Card Check in California
One has to look no further than Senate Bill 1474 (Steinberg; D-Sacramento) to grasp why each year the California Chamber of Commerce finds it necessary to issue our annual "job killers" list of legislation that threatens our state’s business climate.
A notable bill on this year’s list is SB 1474, a dangerous proposal that does many things but, most importantly, seeks to expand unionization by creating a back door for "card check" in California.
Under a recently amended version of this bill that is awaiting action by the Governor, the Agricultural Labor Relations Board (ALRB) has the power to take a card signed by an employee with the purpose of merely holding an election and creating a certification for the union. Employees sign authorization cards for a number of reasons including to call for an election, to stop a union organizer from continuing to pester them for their cards or because they were tricked by misrepresentation as to the consequence of signing a card. Ultimately, under the process outlined in SB 1474, the ALRB can convert these signatures into a card check election without the employee’s knowledge. The union never has to disclose to the employee that the result of their signature appearing on this card for another purpose ended up generating a vote for unionization. This is unfair to the employee.
Prop 23: Voters Must Not Leave State’s Economy To Chance
Prop 23 = temporarily postponing AB 32 until economy improves
Meg Whitman = one-year delay of AB 32
Jerry Brown = Immediate AB 32 implementation and increased costs
Gubernatorial candidate Meg Whitman agrees that AB 32 will be a job
killer and hopes that as Governor she would be able to delay it until
it can be fixed. But to make sure AB 32 is delayed, voters must support
Prop 23. We can’t leave this to chance.
California’s economy already looks like this:
Vote Yes on 20 – No on 27
Beware of Proposition 27 – the most cynical, anti-voter initiative on
this November’s ballot. This power grab by the State’s politicians
would be a quantum leap backwards at a time when Californians are
hungry for true political reform. Don’t be fooled.
Gerrymandered legislative districts are one of the roots of political
dysfunctions in California, Washington, D.C. and in other states across
our nation. Following each decade’s census, states are charged with
redrawing their legislative boundaries to account for changing
demographics and population shifts. Problems arise when elected
officials are the ones in charge of drawing the new district
boundaries. They relish this opportunity to choose their voters rather
than the other way around.
In 2001 when the districts were redrawn by the California Legislature,
the result was oddly-shaped districts that protected incumbents and
killed any possibility for electoral competition or pragmatic
bipartisanship. Flash forward 10 years and we can see how that played
out in Sacramento.