Last week, I made my early picks a to where the action may
be for Congress and the state Assembly in November 2012. Now, lets look at the
state Senate.
First, only the 20 odd-numbered districts are up for
election in 2012, and, barring a successful court challenge or referendum, the
candidates will run in one of the newly drawn districts that the Citizens
Redistricting Commission, in their final vote, are expected to approve today, August
15.
Senators elected in 2010 in one of the 20 even-numbered
districts were elected to a four-year term and will represent those districts
as drawn until the end of their current term in 2014. Should any of these
senators resign his/her seat, a special election would be held to fill the
unexpired term, but the election would be held under the old lines. The newly
drawn even-numbered districts do not become legal until the 2014 election
cycle.
Here are the odd-numbered senate districts that I pick as
possibly being competitive, with the more likely targets being listed first.
27th Senate District:
Republican Sen. Tony Strickland
and Democratic Sen. Fran Pavley are
gearing up to battle each other for this highly competitive district that
encompasses Ventura County’s Simi Valley and Thousand Oaks, and the L.A. County
city of Malibu, stretching north through the west San Fernando Valley and
ending in Santa Clarita. Forty percent of the voters in this new district
reside in the current 19th District represented by Strickland, while
thirty-six percent reside in Pavley’s current 23rd District. It’s also interesting to note that half of
the new Senate district overlaps Assembly districts currently represented by
Republicans Jeff Gorell and Cameron Smyth, while the other half overlaps
Assembly districts currently represented by Democrats Robert Blumenfield and
Julia Brownley.
Jerry Brown and Meg Whitman tied here, 47% -47%, while Carly
Fiorina squeaked by Barbara Boxer 47% – 46%.
Side Note: Should
Cong. Elton Gallegly (R) decide to not seek reelection to Congress next year,
Strickland could decide to run for the Gallegly congressional seat. That would
open the door for Asm. Cameron Smyth (R-Santa Clarita) to run in this
district.
5th Senate
District OPEN SEAT (Stockton): This is a competitive district, but we don’t
as yet know for certain who will be running here.
Sen. Tom Berryhill
(R) lives in this senate district, but he was elected in 2010 to a four-year
term and has a very safe GOP district (8th Senate district) he could
run in 2014 when he is up for reelection. But some GOP leaders, fearing they could
lose this new swing seat if they don’t have a top tier candidate, are
attempting to persuade Berryhill to run for this seat next year. First-term Asm. Kristin Olsen (R-Modesto) also lives in this senate district, but
she has announced that she wants to seek reelection in the newly drawn 12th
Assembly district, which is much more safely Republican than this Senate
district.
On the Democratic side, the individual being mention most is
Asm. Cathleen Galgiani (D-Tracy),
who is termed out in 2012. But much of the district would be new to her.
Brown narrowly outpolled Whitman here 47% – 46%, while
Fiorina outpolled Boxer 46% – 42%.
31st
Senate District OPEN SEAT (Riverside County): New senate district covering
the northwest portions of Riverside County. GOP Asm. Jeff Miller will run here, but the district has a three-point
Democratic registration edge and Brown outpolled Whitman 48% – 42%, while
Fiorina just narrowly outpolled Boxer 46% – 45%.
Democrats will be looking for a strong candidate to oppose
Miller. Steve Clute of Riverside,
who served in the Assembly from 1982 – 1992, has been talking to Democratic
leaders about a possible run. Since leaving the Assembly, Clute has made many
attempts at a political comeback, running unsuccessfully for Congress in 1994,
as well as the Assembly (AD80) in 1996 and 2006.
WATCH
19th
Senate District OPEN SEAT: Former Democratic Asms. Hannah-Beth Jackson and Pedro
Nava – bitter political rivals – are
looking at running for this new Senate district. Also a serious contender is Jason Hodge (D) of Oxnard, a Ventura
County firefighter and political director of the county firefighters’ union.
On the Republican side is former Santa Barbara County
Supervisor Mike Stoker, who ran
against Das Williams (D) for Assembly in 2010.
A Republican win would be a major upset here, but Tony Strickland was
not suppose to be able to defeat Hannah-Beth Jackson in a hard-fought senate
race in 2008, where Strickland narrowly defeated Jackson in a district where
Obama received over 60% of the vote.
SAME PARTY RUNOFF
33rd
Senate District OPEN SEAT: Sen. Alan Lowenthal (D-Long Beach) is termed out
in 2012 (looking at running for congress) and his former wife, Asm. Bonnie Lowenthal (D-Long Beach), who is
not termed out until 2014, announced that she would give up here Assembly seat
to run to succeed him. But redistricting was not kind to her and Asm. Ricardo Lara (D-Bell Gardens) is likely
to run in this district, which was specifically drawn to favor a Latino (47% of
district voters). Should she run, due to
the district’s low GOP registration (24%), the two Democrats could end up as
the two top vote getters in the June Primary ballot, sitting up a runoff
election between the two in November.
REDISTRICTING VICTIM
17th
Senate District SAM BLAKESLEE (R): The incumbent Republican was a big loser
in redistricting. This new district was made safely Democratic by placing all
of Santa Cruz County into the district. Brown outpolled Whitman 56% – 38%,
while Boxer outpolled Fiorina 54% – 38%. Blakeslee looked at possibly running
for Congress against Lois Capps, but decided against it. Most believe he will
not attempt reelection.
Asm. Bill Monning (D-Carmel) has announced that he is seriously
looking at running for the seat. Former Asm.
John Laird (D) of Santa Cruz, who ran unsuccessfully against Blakeslee in an
August 17, 2010 Special Election, is also looking seriously at a possible run.
DEMOCRATS GO FOR
SUPER MAJORITY
Should the Senate Democrats hold on to the new Santa
Barbara-based 19th District, along with the almost certain gain of
the seat now held by Republican Sam Blakeslee, Democrats will have a very good
opportunity of capturing a two-thirds "super majority" in the November 2012
General Election.
To prevent it, Republicans would need to win all three of the targeted
races noted above.
A tough road for them to follow, which is why Republican
Party leaders are being so outspoken in their opposition to the new district
lines, more specifically, the new Senate district lines. Gillard Blanning has
been retained to manage a referendum campaign against the Senate plan, and the
Senate Republican Caucus is trying to raise $250k to begin the effort immediately.