Campaign 2014: Weekly Update, What’s Hot

Allan Hoffenblum
Publisher of the California Target Book and owner of Allan Hoffenblum & Associates

Entering the last two weeks of Campaign 2014, I am posting a weekly piece updating readers on the week’s latest campaign news. This is an abbreviated version of the Hot Sheet, which is regularly emailed to subscribers of the California Target Book.

SD32 (Open Seat): GOP Going After for a Big Upset Win: The CA Republican Party, along with an independent expenditure committee funded mostly by Charles Munger, Jr., and the CA Chamber of Commerce’s JobsPAC, have spent over $490,000, in an attempt to defeat former Democratic Asm. Tony Mendoza, who is being challenged by Republican Mario Guerra, the mayor of Downey. This seat is open due to state Sen. Ron Calderon being termed out. Calderon was suspended from the Senate earlier this year after being charged with bribery, money laundering and tax fraud.

The district, located in southeast Los Angeles County, has a 48% to 25% Democratic registration advantage. Brown outpolled Whitman here 56% to 36% in the 2010 election. In 2012, Obama outpolled Romney 64% to 34%.  A GOP win here would be a major upset.

CD17 (D-Honda): New Poll Show Race a Dead Heat: This is a hard-fought same party runoff between Democratic incumbent Mike Honda and fellow Democrat Rho Khanna. A SurveyUSA poll conducted for KPIX-TV (San Francisco) of 650 registered voters from Oct. 16 through Oct. 19, of which 579 were determined to be likely voters, shows Honda with 37% and fellow Democrat Rho Khanna with 35%. The 2% difference is within the poll’s 4.2% margin of error.

The Honda campaign is now airing a TV ad that attacks Khanna of being backed by right-wing billionaires … view

CD33 (Open Seat): New Independent Expenditure Spending Big Buck in Support of GOP Candidate: Bold Agenda PAC, a super PAC funded by California winery owner John Jordan, is spending $256,485 to broadcast a TV spot in support of Republican Elan Carr, who is running in the open seat represented by Henry Waxman, who is retiring this year. Carr’s Democratic opponent is state Senator Ted Lieu. The ad began airing last Friday and will continue until Oct. 23 at a cost of $50,000 per day. The Target Book is tagging this race as a WATCH, Likely Democratic.

CD21 (R-Valadao): Appealing to the Latino Vote. Incumbent GOP Rep. David Valadao is in a tough reelection battle in a Central Valley district where 54% of the voters are Latino. The campaign is now airing this TV AD

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