To the surprise of absolutely no one, the state Supreme Court Tuesday upheld November’s Proposition 8, which banned same-sex marriage in California. So now what?
Sure, there were thousands of gay rights demonstrators outside the court’s San Francisco home waving signs, blocking streets and shouting “Shame on you.” But the leaders of the Prop. 8 opposition and most of the people in the streets knew what the decision was going to be when they showed.
The decision was virtually guaranteed last November when Justice Joyce Kennard voted against even hearing the case against Prop. 8. Since Kennard was part of the 4-to-3 majority that ruled last May that same-sex marriage was guaranteed under the state Constitution, and the three dissenting justices likely hadn’t changed their minds, the math was daunting for the measure’s opponents.
And when Chief Justice Ronald George, who wrote the original pro-gay marriage decision, talked about “a new Constitution” during the March court hearings on Prop. 8, that pretty much sealed the deal. The vote was 6-to-1 to uphold Prop. 8, although the justices agreed unanimously to let the 18,000 same-sex marriages stand.
There’s plenty of sentiment from rank-and-file gay rights activists to go back on the ballot as quickly as possible, with an initiative filed in a few days, a fast signature-gathering campaign and a ballot target of next November.
A survey by Equality California found better than two-thirds support for a 2010 ballot date, citing the grassroots momentum by supporters of gay marriage and the push the movement is getting from other states like Iowa, Vermont, Maine and Connecticut, which have legalized same-sex marriage in recent months.
But if you talk to political professionals, there are plenty of concerns that sooner might not necessarily be better.
It’s a matter of who votes in an election. Last November’s election was probably the best of all possible worlds for gay marriage supporters. Barack Obama’s presidential campaign brought out hordes of new and occasional voters, many of them the same young and progressive voters most likely to back gay rights issues.
That wasn’t enough. Prop. 8 won, 52 percent to 48 percent, even with the electoral playing field tilted against it. And polls since then haven’t shown any major shift in those numbers.
Next year’s governor’s race isn’t going to attract the same heavy turnout as a presidential vote. And there’s no guarantee that those new voters who showed up in droves for Obama will be back to vote for Jerry Brown, Gavin Newsom or whatever Democrat wins the nomination.
In 2012, however, Obama will be back on the ballot, bringing with him the same folks who backed him last November. An extra two years’ delay will also allow more time to raise money and put together a campaign that reaches out to all of California, something same-sex marriage supporters didn’t do so well last year.
It will also give more time for gay rights activists to argue that those 18,000 same-sex marriages validated Tuesday and the ones in those other states haven’t ended civilization as we know it.
But whether the next gay marriage vote is in 2010 or 2012, there’s one thing you can bet on. Whoever loses will be going back to the ballot in a fight that’s going to continue for years.
John Wildermuth is a long-time writer on California politics.