Cuts Are Coming

The governor issues two budget proposals today, one suggesting how he plans to fill the budget hole if the special election ballot measures pass, the other showing how he’ll fill the bigger hole if they fail.

Either way, whether the budget is 15 billion dollars out-of-whack or 21 billion, cuts will happen.

Arguing that many of the suggested cuts are scare tactics, some have referred to similar tactics employed in the past, especially during the famous California tax revolt of 1978. Few of the threatened cuts at that time came to pass. One big difference from then to now is that in 1978 the state was sitting on a 40% state budget surplus. Now there is a about a 40% state budget deficit.

So there will be cuts. The focus now is how they will be employed. Many cuts should be made and have been needed for a long time. Agency consolidation, unnecessary commissions and sale of excess property have been argued over for years and will be the first on the agenda. But that will not be enough, and cuts will come to local governments and schools and other mainline services.

One Year….and Counting

Today marks the first anniversary of Fox and Hounds Daily.

Our goal in creating this site was to bring together varying voices to debate and illuminate the issues affecting business and politics in California.

Our best-read pieces didn’t hone to a specific political ideology or theme. Jon Coupal’s argument for shared sacrifice from the public sector and supporting furloughs for public employees proved extremely popular, as did Allan Hoffenblum’s view of the falling fortunes of the California Republican Party and Chandra Sharma’s business take on building a football stadium in Los Angeles.

Our readers clearly have multiple interests.

Can the Governor Pull Another Miracle in Ballot Measure Campaign?

Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has turned around a number of ballot measure campaigns, turning what looked like defeat into victory. However, he has his work cut out for him to do that again, according to Mark Baldassare, President of the Public Policy Institute of California that issued a new statewide poll on the ballot measures. Most of the measures are trailing, some by double digits.

In the March 2004 election, Schwarzenegger campaigned hard for budget reforms in Propositions 57 and 58, turning measures that were initially polling in the low 30-percent range to victory on Election Day. Similarly, the governor worked to turn around an attempt to ease California’s three-strikes law and helped take the redistricting Proposition 11 to victory.

However, Baldassare says the political climate is different in 2009 than it was in 2004 when Props 57 and 58 passed. For one thing, he noted the governor’s approval rating was around 60% in 2004 compared to 34% in the most recent poll. Similarly, the legislature was not being roasted with numbers in the low teens as they are today.

New Republican Leader Supports Constitutional Convention

Selection of the new Republican Minority Leader boosted the movement for a constitutional convention. Sam Blakeslee has introduced two bills calling for a constitutional convention. ACR 1 outlines parameters for a convention and AB 4, which calls the convention, lays out a proposal for picking delegates.

Blakeslee’s bills would limit the convention to three areas: Election and campaign reform; budget reform, and tax reform. Among the reforms mentioned in the bills are lengthening term limits and requiring fees that exceed a certain standard to face the same two-thirds vote required of taxes.

Blakeslee will be taking on many of these issues as Republican leader. In his new role he has the opportunity to push reforms without the need of a constitutional convention. But, if reforms are not advanced, and trust in state government is not restored, the call for a constitutional convention will become louder.

Gingrich Recommends Fixes for California

Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich says the solution to fixing California’s governance problems starts with a part-time legislature. Gingrich, who was in Orange County last night speaking at the New Majority’s Tenth Anniversary celebration, argued that term limits did not work, simply ceding power to lobbyists and bureaucrats.

Now running a think tank called American Solutions, Gingrich said he studies Sacramento, along with the capitols of New York and New Jersey, to see what is wrong with governance in America.

California’s problems start and stop with the control special interests have over the legislature, he said. Calling the public employee unions the modern day version of the railroads from the early 20th century that caused Governor Hiram Johnson to champion the initiative process to get around the legislature, Gingrich said we are in similar times to that progressive era when the people took more control over government.

Governing By Polls or Pols

Governing by polls instead of by pols (as in politicians) apparently would not bring different results in California. Just look at recent polls.

The respondents to the latest Field Poll are clearly saying: Don’t raise taxes and don’t cut spending. Isn’t that the position politicians in Sacramento take most of the time?

When the voters were asked if they wanted to see their taxes raised to balance the budget, 58% said no way.

When they were asked if they wanted to cut law enforcement and police only 23% said Yes. Cut public schools: 25% Yes. How about health care for low-income people: 26% Yes. Higher education: 31% Yes. And so it went. Only state prisons and parks seemed to be on the chopping block to the poll respondents. But do you really think a majority of voters would actually pull the trigger to cut these programs if they were given the chance?

Jack Kemp: A Remembrance

I remember so clearly sitting in Jack Kemp’s congressional office in Washington with Howard Jarvis in the early 1980s, Kemp making a fist, and considering earnestly in his raspy voice, how to “get hold of the (Republican) Convention in ’88.” He was already thinking ahead to a run for the presidency, anticipating a second term by President Ronald Reagan, then a continuation of the Reagan Revolution under Jack Kemp.

And why not? The Reagan Revolution built its foundation in part on the work Kemp did in promoting economic growth through tax cuts and supply-side economics. Author of the Kemp-Roth tax cut bill in Congress with Delaware Senator William Roth; the bill was a forerunner to the Reagan tax cuts in the president’s first term. Kemp was a believer in supply-side economics, tax cuts and enterprise zones advocating economic growth as a way to raise up the poor.

Proposition 13: What Would Howard Jarvis Say?

Proposition 13 will become a target for those who support more revenue because of the continuing state budget deficit. Frankly, Prop 13 has been a target since it passed in 1978 and while it will continue to be a target, its steady popularity means it will be difficult or impossible to change.

Last June, I was asked to give the keynote speech at an all day UC Berkeley conference on Proposition 13, commemorating the proposition’s 30th anniversary.

All speakers that day contributed their work to a book now published by the Berkeley Public Policy Press. Titled, “After the Tax Revolt: California’s Proposition 13 Turns 30,” the book is edited by professors Jack Citrin of UC Berkeley and Isaac William Martin of UC San Diego. The book contains essays from varying perspectives on Proposition 13. Copies of the book can be attained here.

Specter over California

Arlen Specter’s move from the Republican to the Democratic Party seems to be about his personal political ambition. He calculated his Senatorial career would end if he tried to be re-elected as a Republican. But, the discussion it conjures up about whether the Republican Party is narrowing its acceptance of individuals with differing views reflects the debate that is sizzling in California Republican circles.

Specter noted in his announcement that 200,000 registered Republicans had recently abandoned the Pennsylvania Republican Party. As their leader, he decided to follow. In California, the Republican Party numbers are also shrinking. Only 31-percent of registered voters now consider themselves Republican.

On this site, Allan Hoffenblum noted the precipitous drop in Republican registration and that Republicans no longer claim a pure majority in registration in any legislative district. Tony Quinn went so far as to declare the Republican Party dead in California, although GOP Republican chairman Ron Nehring vehemently disagreed.

At Convention, Democrats Target Two-Thirds Vote … They Say for the Budget, They Mean Taxes

Here’s an irony from this weekend’s state Democratic convention. Many of the delegates and public employee union members demand that democratic proceedings, including voting on budgets and taxes, require a simple majority vote to pass. However, they are celebrating that the Proposition 1A budget reform endorsement at the party’s convention was rejected because it failed to achieve sixty percent vote required by party rules.

Fifty-eight percent of the delegates voted for the endorsement but that was not enough. Now party faithful who claimed victory over the vote are prepared to campaign against the two-thirds vote for the budget and taxes.

There was no mincing words at the Democratic convention this weekend on the two-thirds vote rule. New state Democratic Party Chairman John Burton said he would lead the charge to get rid of the two-thirds vote to pass the budget. State Treasurer Bill Lockyer said the two-thirds vote had to go. This crusade has been top of the list for other leading Democrats as well for some time. Their wish was well received by the party faithful in attendance. Here’s how Calbuzz put it: “Big cheer when Johnny B. (Burton) vows to get rid of 2/3 vote to pass the budget.”