In sizing up the prospects for voter approval of governor Jerry Brown’s proposal to extend a number of “temporary” tax increases, it is important to understand that California’s electorate is not unalterably opposed to raising taxes, but is dead set against feeding the dysfunction in the State Capitol.

Those who predict that voters will reject tax extensions because they rejected several measures on the 2009 special Election Ballot that would have allowed those taxes to continue. What happened two years ago was not a tax revolt, but voter revulsion at the Gang Who couldn’t Shoot Straight in Sacramento. Sure the hard-core anti-tax crowd voted No, but so did a lot of bleeding heart liberals who just wanted to send Arnold a message. This was just a case of too many people seeing the sausage being made and losing their appetites. Besides, there was no coherent campaign in support of the measures or, more importantly, the reasons the tax extensions were needed. Voters sent a message to Sacramento, but it wasn’t about tax increases.

That leaves the question of whether or not Jerry Brown and the powers that be can make a persuasive case that the blue smoke has been dissipated , the mirrors broken and State government is finally facing up to straightening out its fiscal house. This will require straight talk, an absence of gimmicks and specificity about what those tax cuts will buy.

The horrific multiple murders of
this past weekend are echoing all over the landscape this week.  So many questions are everywhere you look in
our supercharged 24/7 Media right now. 
These include: 1) how Congressmen and -women, Judges, and indeed all
elected officials, can continue to go out among the citizenry (as they must)
without risk of their lives; 2) how to detect (and weed out for immediate
treatment) precisely which dangerously unstable members of our 300+ million
population are ticking time-bombs, capable of such hair-trigger and senseless
destruction of human life, and; 3) last but never least, what changes need to
be made to avoid more senseless deaths in this frenzied time in which we live.

Arizona has the most liberal gun
laws in the nation.  This article is not
about gun control.  Deranged people who
are bent on killing, will kill whether or not more statutes are enacted to
‘control’ gun ownership.  It is like
throwing rocks at airplanes.

Reportedly, Governor Jerry Brown will propose a budget today that includes severe spending cuts and a proposal to extend temporary tax increases. But the trade off of spending cuts for tax increases is not enough. Restructuring the way we operate government should be part of the package.

As of this writing, I don’t know how long a period Brown wants the taxes extended. Another two years? More? Or is the idea to make them permanent? However, the life expectancy of the spending cuts could be very short. Proposition 25 passed by voters in November allows a majority vote to pass the budget. That means, once the tax increases are in place, for whatever length of time, the spending side of the budget can be altered by a majority vote by the Democrats next year.

Democrats are not happy with the budget cuts and could and probably would alter them as soon as possible.

Republican legislators will balk at such a scenario and won’t accept a deal of tax extension for deep spending cuts.

When Gov. Jerry Brown presents his, to steal a phrase, “terrible, horrible, no good, very bad” budget this morning, Republican legislators could quickly find themselves in a bind.

Brown has spent the days and weeks since his November election telling anyone who will listen just how ghastly a financial fix California is in and the type of something-for-everyone-to-hate budget that’s going to be needed to keep the state afloat.

Nobody and nothing will be spared, the governor promised, including plenty of programs his fellow Democrats have gone to war over in the past.

The spending plan will be smoke and mirror free, he pledged, and will show Californians exactly how much shared pain will be needed to staunch the fiscal bleeding.

All that’s way easier said than done, but if the governor follows through on his promises, GOP lawmakers face a dilemma.

Should
the Governor today propose tax increases to be voted on by the people in June, as strongly rumored, then I will look forward
to answers to several questions:

1.   
How will he place the
question on the ballot? There are only three ways to put a tax measure on the
ballot: (a) citizen initiative, (b) legislative amendment of an approved voter initiative
(by a majority legislative vote), or (c) legislative constitutional amendment
(2/3rds legislative vote).

2.   
If by citizen
initiative, is there enough time and resources to make a June deadline?

3.   
If by amending an
approved voter initiative, which initiatives would be amended?

4.   
If by constitutional
amendment, would the amendment put the actual tax increases in the
Constitution, or would the tax increases be approved by the Legislature
contingent on passage of a constitutional amendment on a different subject
(say, budget reform)?

Eight years ago, I served as Chairman of the California Commission on Tax Policy in a New Economy. We held 17 hearings around the state and listened to options for revising the California tax system.

The events drew people from all socio-economic backgrounds and analyzed 12 tax policy proposals using the following principles: fairness and perception; simplicity; and efficiency and balance. The commission made 12 recommendations to fix our tax structure, including proposals to:

• Lower the sales tax rate but extend it to services

• Reduce the voting requirement to raise special taxes on the local level

• Periodically reassess non residential property to market value

We issued our final report in December 2003, one month after Arnold Schwarzenegger replaced Governor Gray Davis. The new administration ignored our recommendations.

The renewed discussion about Proposition 13 this week prompted by Governor Jerry Brown’s plan to realign state and local government responsibilities should put the focus on another key issue: public employee pensions and health benefits.

The Wall Street Journal reported last month that property taxes are rising all around the country with public officials blaming the need to met pensions and health care costs.

Philadelphia raised property taxes nearly 10-percent. A spokesman for the Illinois Municipal League said while property taxes have increased in recent years to keep up with pension and health care costs, the increases this year have been much larger. Don Boyd, a senior fellow at the nonpartisan Nelson A. Rockefeller Institute of Government at the State University of New York told the Journal, “Unless governments really want to squeeze essential services…there are likely to be a lot more property tax increases.”

California needs more revenues. One obvious place to get them: Washington DC. But the feds have their own problems and aren’t eager to oblige. How to get their attention?

Ted Costa’s new initiative offers a way.

Yes, this is the initiative that would alter presidential politics in favor of Republicans by switching California from a winner-take-all state (with all electoral votes going to the statewide winner) to a state in which the winner in each Congressional district would get one electoral vote. This would break the current Democratic stranglehold on the state’s 55 electoral votes and give roughly 20 of those votes to the Republicans – a sea change in presidential elections.

This is a partisan idea that’s bad policy…

And perhaps the perfect weapon to wield against the Obama administration and the Democrats in service of getting more federal money for California.