How the GOP hung on to CA Congressional seats in 2008
It was near miraculous that the Democrats did not pick off a Republican incumbent congressman in California last November.
Not only did Barack Obama carry California by the largest margin since the Roosevelt – Landon landslide of 1936, Obama was able to outpoll John McCain in EIGHT of the NINETEEN congressional districts currently held by a Republican.
The principal reason for their lack of success is that with the exception of the race in CD4 between Republican Tom McClintock and Democrat Charlie Brown and the race in CD50 between Republican Brian Bilbray and Democrat Nick Leibham — both narrowly won by the Republican — national Democratic leaders didn’t make a full court effort to win any additional Republican seats in California.
They are not likely to make this mistake in 2010.
2008 Assembly Races – Final Update
In earlier posts for Fox and Hounds, I asked the question, "Can Assembly Democrats gain the six seats needed to reach a two-thirds supermajority?"
I then went on to list the six GOP-held assembly districts I and my fellow editors of the California Target Book believed would be the ones most likely targeted by the Democrats to achieve that goal: AD10 (D-Alyson Huber vs. R-Jack Sieglock); AD15 (D-Joan Buchanan vs. R-Abram Wilson); AD26 (D-John Eisenhut vs. R-Bill Berryhill); AD36 (D-Ferial Masry vs. R-Audra Strickland); AD78 (D-Marty Block vs. R-John McCann); AD80 (D-Manuel Perez vs. R-Gary Jeandron.
We also stated that the Democrats would also need to hold on to AD30 that was represented by termed out Democratic Asm. Nicole Parra (D-Fran Florez vs. R-Danny Gilmore).
Our predictions turned out to be quite prophetic, because the Democratic leadership did attempt to achieve that supermajority and they in fact focused on the six GOP-held districts mentioned above.
Assembly Democrats going for a Supermajority?
For Democrats to achieve a veto-proof “supermajority” in the state Assembly come next Tuesday, they must pick up six seats currently held by a Republican, while holding on to AD30, which is the sole Democratic held seat that is being seriously contested.
Last August, the California Target Book put out it’s Assembly Target List, listing six Republican held districts that the editors believed would be the Democrats’ best opportunities to pick up seats: Assembly District 10 (suburban Sacramento), AD26 (Central Valley), AD15 (East Bay), AD37 (Ventura County), AD78 (inland San Diego County), and AD80 (Imperial County).
From the get-go, the Assembly Democratic leadership and/or independent expenditure committees supporting their agenda put big bucks behind their nominees in four of the above mentioned districts: ALYSON HUBER in AD10, JOAN BUCHANAN in AD15, MARTY BLOCK in AD78, and MANUEL PEREZ in AD80.
Now, it appears they are going after all six.
National Democrats Take Aim at Brian Bilbray
SurveyUSA, a national polling firm that has been retained by several major television stations throughout California, released their latest presidential poll last Friday (10/17) showing Barack Obama leading John McCain 59%-35%, with only 3% undecided. Among independent voters, Obama is leading McCain 59%-26%, with 7% undecided.
If accurate, and the election were today, Obama would carry California by a landslide, and the question turns to whether or not such a large Obama win will have coattails, allowing some major upset wins by Democrats currently running in congressional seats that for the past decade have reliably voted Republican.
In a F&H post I wrote last July, I picked four Republican incumbents who were being seriously challenged by a strong Democrat: David Dreier, who is being challenged by Russell Warner, a wealthy magazine distributors whose son served in Iraq (CD26); Mary Bono Mac, who is being challenged by Julie Bornstein, a former member of the state Assembly (CD45); Dana Rohrabacher, who is being challenge by Debbie Cook, the mayor of Huntington Beach (CD46); and Brian Bilbray, who is being challenged by Nick Leibham, a San Diego attorney (CD50).
Independent Expenditure Committees Pick Their Targets
Some key Independent Expenditure Committees (IEs) have jumped into targeted Assembly races in attempt to influence their outcome come November.
The biggest player, thus far, is an IE titled Opportunity PAC, which is being funded by the CA Faculty Association ($350,000), CA State Council of Service Employees ($300,000), SEIU 1000 ($250,000), Political Action for Classified Employees of CA Schools ($400,000) and the CA Federation of Teachers ($100,000).
As of this writing, they have spent:
- $167,612 in support of Democrat ALYSON HUBER, an attorney running in the 10th Assembly District (AD10) against Republican JACK SIEGLOCK, a former member of the San Joaquin County Board of Supervisors.
- $331,000 in support of Democrat JOAN BUCHANAN, a San Ramon Valley School Board member running in AD15 against Republican ABRAM WILSON, the mayor of San Ramon.
- $159,670 in support of Democrat MANUEL PEREZ, a Coachella Valley School Board member running in AD80 against Republican GARY JEANDRON, the former Chief of Police of Palm Springs.
Going on offense is an IE titled Faculty for Our University’s Future, which is funded totally by the California Faculty Association.
How The McCain/Palin Ticket May Help California Republicans
Based on the e-mails, phone calls and other discussions I have had with my fellow Republicans throughout California, I can attest to the fact that GOP activists are pumped as never before following last week’s National Convention; at least since 1980.
The reason, as anyone who has watched TV or read a newspaper the last few days knows, is Gov. Sarah Palin.
Now, Palin or no Palin, no one but the must enthusiastic Republican partisan believes that McCain will carry California come November. This remains a “blue” state.
But if you are Tom McClintock running in CD4, or Dean Andal running in CD11, or Jack Sieglock running in AD10, or Bill Berryhill running in AD26, you are very thankful to John McCain’s bold selection of Gov. Sarah Palin to be his running mate.
This is because the above GOP candidates are running in races currently targeted by Democrats that are located in the “red” portions of California, districts that George Bush handily carried over Kerry in 2004.
A Monkey Wrench in the Democrats’ Plan to Win an Assembly Super-Majority
Next to electing Barack Obama President of the United States come November, Assembly Democrats biggest dream is picking up the six assembly seats needed to achieve a two-thirds super-majority and, therefore, no longer needing Republican votes to pass a state budget or increase taxes.
But Assembly Speaker Karen Bass might have thrown a monkey wrench into that effort.
To achieve their super-majority, Democrats must not only pick up six assembly districts currently held by a Republican – a tall order by itself – but must also hold on to the sole competitive assembly district that is currently held by a Democrat, which is the 30th Assembly District (AD30) represented by Nicole Parra.
This is the same Nicole Parra that had her office thrown out of the Capitol building (an historic first) as well as all all bills she had pending killed by Speaker Bass as punishment for refusing to vote aye with other Democrats on last weekend’s proposed budget — because they would not agree to put a water bond on the ballot.
Will Independent Voters be the Key for Assembly Democrats Bid for a Super-Majority in November?
I have previously posted two articles on this site discussing the odds of the Democratic Party being able to achieve a veto-proof “supermajority” in the Senate or Assembly.
This would require the Democrats to gain two new seats in the Senate and six new seats in the Assembly.
Due to the Democrats’ failed attempt at recalling GOP Senator Jeff Denham last June, and no Democrat filing to run against GOP Senator Abel Maldonado – allowing him to run unopposed in November – the chances of Senate Democrats gaining two seats are all but nil.
On the Assembly side, the California Target Book, a non-partisan publication that analyses and handicaps legislative races in this state (which I publish), is tracking six assembly districts that are currently being held by a Republican that are believed to be at the top of the Democratic Target List.
The six districts are: AD’s 10, 15, 26, 37, 78 and 80.
Democrats looking for big upsets in 2008 Congressional races
Back in 2001, the Democratic and Republican leadership forged a bi-partisan gerrymander of the district lines for congress and both houses of the state legislature. Gerrymandering is the drawing of district lines in such a way that the districts become so heavily Democratic or Republican that winning the primary election is tantamount to winning in November, making the November general election meaningless in all but a small handful of districts.
The congressional line drawers particularly did such a skillful job that almost all incumbent members of congress who sought re-election since 2002 have won with majorities exceeding 60 percent of the votes cast.
But 2006 saw some chinks in the armor with Democrat Jerry McNerney defeating incumbent GOP Congressman Richard Pombo (CD11) and the near upset win by Democrat Charlie Brown over GOP Congressman John Doolittle (CD4).
McNerney is facing former GOP Assembly Member/BOE Member Dean Andal this year, in what is expected to be one of the hardest fought congressional races in the nation.
How is our representative democracy working in California?
How is our representative democracy working in California?
In a word, dismally.
The June 3rd primary election selected party nominees for congress and the state legislature.
While the number of registered voters in California continues to increase — 16,123,970 as of last May – fewer and fewer participated in the primary election, reaching an historic low this election cycle, with less than 29 percent of California voters going to the polls.
The consequences of this are the ridiculously low number of votes that the top vote-getters received while winning their primary nomination.
In a hard-fought Democratic primary election in the 23rd Senate District, a district that stretches from Fairfax Boulevard in Los Angeles to downtown Oxnard in Ventura County, former Assembly Member Fran Pavley defeated her opponent, Assembly Member Lloyd Levine with 42,719 votes, which was 66 percent of the votes cast.
That 66 percent number looks impressive, but there are 238,682 registered Democrats in that senate district, meaning Pavley won with only 19 percent of the district’s registered Democrats.